IF PAKATAN-UMNO FAILS TO RETAIN TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY OF SELANGOR GOVT – WILL THE ‘TREMOR BE FELT ALL THE WAY FROM SELANGOR TO PUTRAJAYA’? – WISHFUL THINKING INDEED ON THE PART OF THE ANTI-ZAHID CAMP, WHICH INCLUDES SOME BN ALLIES! – BUT REALISTIC & HARDENED PROs IN BOTH UMNO & PAKATAN WOULD BE FOOLISH TO PANIC – WHY SHOULD THEY WHEN THEY WELL KNOW THE ‘GREEN WAVE’ IS STILL BEING FUELLED BY BIG MONEY!

Selangor the target of next green wave

MANY thought Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali was thinking of retiring from politics after he tweeted about taking a break and going back to the drawing board.

He had suffered a crushing defeat in Gombak in the general election at the hands of Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari, a former protege whom he handpicked to succeed him as Selangor Mentri Besar.

But Azmin’s name has since popped up as Perikatan Nasional’s mentri besar (MB) candidate in Selangor alongside state PAS chief Dr Ahmad Yunus Hairi, a medical doctor who is the Kuala Langat MP and Sijangkang assemblyman.

Khairy Jamaluddin was another name tossed around but that has been overtaken by the intriguing rumour that the former Umno politician is eyeing a state seat in Negri Sembilan.

There is a gathering storm over Selangor even though the six-state election is still months away.

Speculation about potential MB candidates this early in the day is a sign of how hungry Perikatan is after winning six out of 22 parliamentary seats in Selangor in the general election.

Selangor has become a Pakatan Harapan fortress but can the coalition hold off Perikatan’s potent mix of Malay and religious rhetoric and big war chest?

The Malay political mood has not changed much since the general election, going by the recent survey on the unity government’s 100 days.

The green wave is being closely watched by no less than the Malay royals as well as the leaders of Singapore.

According to Selangor PAS secretary Roslan Shahir, 33 of the 56 state seats now have 60% or more Malay voters.

Of the remaining seats, 15 are Chinese-majority seats and 8 are mixed.

“The Undi18 voters, the majority of whom are Malays, have changed the racial composition of many seats. We need only 29 seats for a simple majority,” he said.

This has been like oxygen to the ambitions of Perikatan.

Despite all this, it is difficult to see Selangor falling.

“We will retain Selangor although we lost a few parliamentary seats to Perikatan. Malays in Selangor are not like those in Kedah or Kelantan. People here are more rational, they can evaluate our three-term track record,” said Kota Anggerik assemblyman Najwan Halimi.

But, said political commentator Ivanpal S. Grewal, there has to be a significant voter shift to Perikatan if Selangor is to fall.

“Even if Perikatan gets 70% Malay support, it still needs some 15-20% non-Malay votes to make it. Can Perikatan get non-Malay votes at all? Rabid ethnic politics won’t sit well in Selangor,” said Ivanpal.

The Chinese temperature shoots up each time PAS politicians kick up a fuss about beer, lotteries, nightclubs or how women should dress.

Bersatu leaders have asked their PAS counterparts to tone down on issues of dress codes, gambling and alcohol.

According to Azmin, who is the Perikatan chief for Selangor, PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang is aware of how urban Selangoreans view PAS and he is agreeable to Bersatu playing the leading role in Selangor.

Although the ulama in PAS make news for the wrong reasons, Azmin said that PAS has many well-educated professionals like engineers, doctors and lawyers.

“Perikatan will not take extreme positions. We intend to be progressive and inclusive,” he said.

PAS, with 43 parliamentary seats, is the biggest Malay party in the country.

It is learnt that shortly after the general election, PAS’ Dr Ahmad Yunus had an audience with the Selangor Sultan where he was made to understand that the palace has an open mind about who governs Selangor.

The main concern of the palace is that the government of the day must not go for extremist policies because Selangor is a melting pot of cultures.

But while the Malay momentum is with Perikatan, Pakatan will be defending Selangor from a position of strength because it is now the Federal Government and that comes with immense clout and options.

It has turned the heat on Bersatu, charging its leaders for corruption and which some view as selective prosecution.

On the other hand, there is a fact that voters spurned Barisan Nasional because they did not want Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as prime minister. They voted Pakatan and got Ahmad Zahid as Deputy Prime Minister.

Moreover, the unity government is basically a government of frenemies and the six-state election could again see the partners in Putrajaya contesting against each other in the election.

Meanwhile, the Mentri Besar needs to step up his game. He has been unable to shine on his own merit.

He has neither the bold economic ideas of Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim nor the star power of Azmin and he is currently struggling to explain his role in the RM700mil river-widening project.

The prevailing opinion is that Pakatan will hold on to Selangor and that Umno will do badly again.

Ivanpal, who has been crunching the numbers, reckons that Perikatan will likely end up with 18-20 seats in Selangor.

That means that Pakatan, which now has a whopping 47 state seats, could lose its two-thirds majority.

Should that happen, Amirudin’s job will be in danger and the tremor will be felt from Selangor to Putrajaya.

ANN

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