Low or high turnout?

POLLING day for the Pulai parliamentary seat by-election is on Sept 9, but on paper, Pakatan Harapan has already won.

The Johor constituency has the demographics that the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional coalition led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim thrives on.

It is a seat in which the Malays are a slim majority – about 51% of the total number of eligible voters. The Chinese make up about 37% and Indians about 10%.

With Anwar’s approval rating nationwide, according to a recent survey by think tank Ilham Centre, at 88% among the Chinese, 81% among Indians, and 24% among Malays, there will be enough voters – if voter turnout among the three communities is the same – for Pakatan to win the seat.

For Perikatan Nasional to win Pulai, it would need a big Malay swing to the Opposition coalition and a low turnout of Chinese and Indian voters.

Will the Malays in Pulai overwhelmingly support Perikatan, which comprises Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan?

If they do, will it be because of 3R (race, religion and royalty) or bread-and-butter issues?

Can Barisan leader Umno persuade its supporters to vote for Pakatan? Or will they abstain or vote for Perikatan?

In the same survey, the Ilham Centre found that many Umno voters either abstained or voted against the party in the previous state elections because they were dissatisfied with its president, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

In fact, before nomination day yesterday, Umno faced a rebellion of sorts when its Rembia assemblyman, Datuk Muhammad Jailani Khamis, attended the Perikatan machinery launch for the Simpang Jeram by-election on Wednesday night in Muar, Johor.

The Melaka politician explained that he attended the event under Muafakat Nasional, an NGO led by Tan Sri Annuar Musa who is with PAS.

Will enough Chinese turn out to vote in Simpang Jeram?

According to that Ilham Centre survey, Chinese voter turnout was the highest in the Aug 12 state elections. Presumably, Perikatan’s racial and religious rhetoric spooked them into going out to vote.

Some Chinese might have been disappointed with Pakatan, but it was not enough to discourage them from voting for the candidate from the government.

“Some Chinese are beginning to suspect that it is the same old, same old politics regardless of who is in power,” a 30-something advertising execute told me when we chatted about the cancellation of a concert in Penang.

The state government had instructed the Seberang Prai City Council to scrap the approval for the Viral Lagu-Lagu TikTok Malaysia Indonesia 2023 concert scheduled to be held in Kepala Batas next month.

“Let’s see how many of them will be so afraid of PAS that they will turn out to vote.”

Interestingly, if the Chinese votes for Pakatan and the Malay votes for Perikatan are even, the 10% of Indians could be the decider.

Based on the Ilham Centre survey, eight out of 10 Indians favour Anwar and, therefore, Pakatan.

However, there is a big question mark over whether Anwar has an “Indian problem” after the just concluded state polls.

Influential personalities from the community have asked Indian voters to boycott the two by-elections in Johor.

Among them is activist Arun Dorasamy, who said the community should boycott the Prime Minister for presiding over a religious conversion ceremony involving an Indian.

“I’m starting a movement to urge Indian voters to boycott Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional during the upcoming by-elections,” Arun said in a news report.

“I’m not asking for Indians to support Perikatan. Instead, this is a protest against the government of the day.”

But I feel it is unlikely that the community will heed the boycott call.

Pulai is for Pakatan to lose.

On paper, the Simpang Jeram state by-election is also for Pakatan to win.

However, Perikatan has better odds in wrestling Simpang Jeram from Amanah, which is a part of Pakatan.

Malays make up about 55% of the voters in the state seat.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia politics and governance research group head Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali forecast that there could be a significant shift in Malay support toward Perikatan. He explained that it is more because the community there is dissatisfied with the economic situation than because they support Perikatan.

“Simpang Jeram is quite critical. It is not impossible for Pakatan to lose the seat given the current developments,” he was reported as saying.

Again, just like in the six state polls, especially in Selangor, the outcome of the by-elections goes back to voter turnout.

A low or high turnout, depending on the demographics, could upset the “on paper” Pakatan wins in the two by-elections.   ANN

What do the Malays want?

The Malay voter base is in a state of change, in search of a new protector and defender against perceived challenges to their rights and beliefs.

POLITICAL analyst Dr Azmi Omar has been watching Terengganu politics for ever so long but he was in disbelief when his home state fell lock, stock and barrel to Perikatan Nasional in the state election.

Perikatan also won with convincing majorities – some exceeding 10,000 votes – in the state that used to be famous for slim majorities.

Umno, Dr Azmi noted, fielded many new faces but all the Umno division chiefs – including two former mentris besar – insisted on contesting, giving the impression that political dinosaurs in Umno were still running the show.

Dr Azmi’s cynical conclusion: Terengganu is officially no longer a swing state and it could be the “next Kelantan”.

The dust has settled but the shock waves have yet to fully subside in Umno.

It is slowly sinking in that the green wave – initially associated with the power of PAS – has become a Malay wave that is no longer confined to the rural Malay heartland.

The Malay wave has arrived in urban Selangor and even Penang, where the Malays are thought to be more integrated and many of whom can speak a smattering of the local Hokkien dialect.

Given the massive crowds that greeted Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor when he arrived in Johor a few days ago, the wave will be felt in the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections.

But the question persists – what is it that the Malays want?

Malay sentiment is in a state of flux. It has been said that the last two rounds of elections were about Malays voting for one side because they disliked the other side more.

But was it really a case of choosing the lesser of two evils, so to speak, or is it something more deep-seated?

“To put it simply, there has been a changing of the guard. For the longest time, Malays looked at Umno as their protector and defender when it came to Malay rights and their religion,” said Dr Azmil Tayeb, a political scientist from Universiti Sains Malaysia.

But Umno is now a bit player on a big stage dominated by Pakatan. It has been weakened and has to rely on its non-Malay partners in Pakatan to win in the state polls.

In the eyes of the Malays, it cannot be depended upon to protect the community any more.

“Malays are looking to Perikatan as the new protector and defender. They have abandoned Umno – we saw it in the last general election,” said Dr Azmil.

He said bread-and-butter issues are top concerns among many Malays but in an election, populist sentiments come into play. Class differences and the sense of being marginalised translates into anti-elite and anti-establishment emotions.

“Put yourself in the position of the average Malay voter having to choose between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan, to decide who is more able to represent them – it is a no-brainer,” said Dr Azmil.

Political leaders and even the Malay Rulers have made numerous appeals against politicising the 3Rs or religion, race and royalty.

But concerns surrounding the 3Rs are coming from the Malay base itself. It is a manifestation of their fears and also hope, of wanting to be assured and secure amid the changes happening around them.

The sentiment is apparent not only in the Malay heartland but also among civil servants, the army and police and the Felda enclaves, all of which were once fixed deposits for Umno.

Is Umno helpless against the Malay wave? Can it reverse the trust deficit?

Dr Azmil sees the trend continuing unless Malays are convinced that Umno has reformed.

The word is that Umno is quite resigned to the fact that it will be a struggle to motivate the general Malay voters in Pulai and Simpang Jeram.

As a result, Umno leaders in Johor have been ordered to focus on their own party members and to bring out their white voters to help Amanah retain the seats.

But will the Umno base cross their ballots for Pakatan? Will they go with Perikatan or will they stay home?

“Nothing is set in stone. It’s a delicate balancing exercise. How Malay sentiments pan out depends on how both sides play the game over the next four years,” said Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed, the former Pulai MP and now Dewan Negara deputy speaker.

Nur Jazlan said that although reforms are necessary for the country to progress, it must be gradual and sensitive to the Malays who are still adjusting to the new political landscape.

“Malays had recoiled after Pakatan Harapan’s aggressive reform push in 2018,” he said,

He said it was “too much too soon”, citing the appointments of the Attorney General, Finance Minister, Chief Justice and a woman politician to head the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Agency.

Malays form the majority in the country and it is crucial for the government of the day to command the Malay mandate.

“Umno represented the Malays for decades. It’s not as if we don’t know what Malays want but first, we need to put our own house in order,” said Bastien Onn, the Segamat Umno deputy chief.

When campaigning during the Umno election in February, Bastien was often asked whether Umno would ever get the prime minister post again or be in control of Putrajaya.

That was when it struck Bastien that Malays, especially those in Umno, want a party that not only represents them but is dominant in national politics. Playing second fiddle is not good enough.

“Only then will the Malay feel secure,” said Bastien.  ANN

ANN

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