‘GELOMBANG ANWAR’ OR GREEN WAVE – WHICH WILL IT BE IN KEDAH & SELANGOR?
Status quo in six state elections?
VOTER turnout? How large is the Malay swing? Ekonomi Madani? Mat Rempit voters? Out-of-state voters? Vote transferability between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional?
These are some of the factors that will determine the outcome of the six state polls on Aug 12.
After seven days of campaigning in Kedah, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor and Terengganu, I called three pollsters to check on what data they were getting on the ground.
The big surprise for Ilham Centre head of research Mohd Yusri Ibrahim is that Chinese and Indian voters have been telling his team that they are ghairah (passionate) to go out to vote. The pollster noted the mood was different in these two communities compared with their lacklustre interest in previous state elections, such as the Melaka and Johor state polls in 2021 and 2022, or by-elections before the 15th General Election (GE15) in November last year.
“The majority of Chinese and Indians we met on the ground were committed to going out to vote for Pakatan,” he said, referring to the Pakatan Harapan-led incumbent state government.
Mohd Yusri believes they are reacting to the campaign narrative being disseminated by Opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional, which is related to religion and race.
“The narrative is not making them comfortable in Penang and Selangor and parts of Negri Sembilan. They want to maintain the Pakatan government in these states,” he said.
Malay voter turnout has always been high, according to the Ilham pollster.
“An election is like a pesta [festival] for Malay voters, especially on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and in Kedah,” he said.
Mohd Yusri observed that the “mood” of Malay voters is largely supportive of Perikatan.
“The data we are getting on the ground is consistent with the support which Perikatan got in GE15,” he said. “
“There’s an indication that Perikatan has the potential of getting the Umno votes.”
Does this mean there’s a political divide between Malays and non-Malays?
“Ethnicity is an important factor in these elections. There is polarisation – Malays moving to Perikatan while Chinese and Indians are heading for Pakatan-Barisan,” he said, referring to the Pakatan and Barisan Nasional coalition forming the current Federal Government.
He clarified that most of the Chinese are with the unity government but the Malays are split demographically. Malays in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are mostly for Perikatan, while in Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan, the Malay voters are divided between Perikatan and Pakatan-Barisan.
Mohd Yusri said that although the Malay voters in seats north of Selangor mostly support Perikatan, Ilham forecasts that Pakatan-Barisan is still leading in the state.
Based on a survey conducted by Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) politics and governance research group head Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali, Malay voters are with Perikatan while the Chinese and Indians support Pakatan-Barisan.
However, the UTM pollster conceded that vote transferability between Pakatan and Barisan gives the two coalitions an edge over Perikatan in Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang.
“More than 56% of the Umno voters will vote for Pakatan, while 76% of Pakatan voters will support Umno. This will help Pakatan-Barisan win the three states,” he said.
In Kedah, Assoc Prof Mazlan observed that Perikatan is still influential. However, he said Pakatan-Barisan is making inroads.
For example, he said, in GE15, young voters’ support was split between Perikatan and Pakatan. “Now we see a swing to Barisan. There are seats in Kedah which the young voters might give to Umno,” he said.
He also said there was a “Gelombang Anwar” (the Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim “wave”) sweeping the country which will help Pakatan-Barisan.
For Kelantan and Terengganu, Assoc Prof Mazlan said that the PAS grassroots remain strong.
“A low out-of-state voter turnout will reduce the gap between the votes Perikatan and Umno will receive – if the outstation turnout is below 50%, Umno can close the gap,” he said.
The researcher’s poll reveals that Malay voters – depending on the state – will go out to vote in droves, but the number might be low for Chinese and Indian voters. In his survey in Selangor, about 70% of Chinese and Indian respondents said they would go out to vote, which he considers low.
“For me, that is low as there’s no guarantee those who said they would turn out to vote will go out. In Kedah, 95% of the Malays polled said they are going out to vote,” he said.
For Universiti Utara Malaysia political lecturer Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani, his on-the-ground feedback is that voters are “lethargic” about voting. He said voter turnout might be similar to previous trends in by-elections and state polls.
“They say this is a state poll that is not as important or exciting as a national election. The turnout could be lower than 70%,” he said, adding it was 73% for GE15.
However, he said in the last few days, many Chinese have indicated they will go out to vote.
“Before, they said voting was not important. But a party has asked them to turn out and they are now more keen to go out, especially in states that Pakatan controls,” he said.
Prof Mohd Azizuddin predicts the status quo will be maintained in Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang, which are currently under Pakatan rule. And, echoing most analysts, he said that Perikatan is strong in seats dominated by Malay voters.
But the contest for these Malay-dominated seats in the three Pakatan-controlled states is becoming closer as Pakatan-Barisan is fighting hard for the Malay votes, he said.
“People are paying attention to Anwar’s Ekonomi Madani. I’m not sure if they understand it, but at least for them, we have a direction for the economy,” he said, referring to mostly urban voters.
The political lecturer said the fight for Kedah is also surprisingly tight, with Perikatan having an edge. He believes the business community is swinging towards Pakatan-Barisan as it is worried a clash between Perikatan and the Pakatan-Barisan Federal Government would affect the state’s economy.
Young educated Malay voters are considering voting for Pakatan-Barisan, whereas the “Mat Rempit” voters are for Perikatan, he said.
“Urban young Malay voters living outside of Kedah could be kingmakers. Pakatan-Barisan winning in Kedah depends on those exposed to national policies and Ekonomi Madani information.”
So, basically, according to these three analysts, the results of the state elections will be the status quo. And also, as we said, it will also depend on voter turnout, the size of the Malay swing, Ekonomi Madani, Mat Rempit voters, out-of-state voters, and vote transferability between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional. ANN
Fierce fight in Selangor
It’s game on in Selangor for Pakatan Harapan versus Perikatan Nasional. The ‘defending champions’ look set for victory but it is not over yet for their main rivals who could still nick the grand prize, a survey shows.
AN intense battle for power is taking place in Selangor, with Opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional posing a threat to Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional’s nexus in their bid to win the state polls on Aug 12.
Selangor, known as a crown jewel state due to its economically viable location and high GDP, is also seeing a tug-of-war over Malay voters, especially the fencesitters.
According to a public opinion survey, however, with Pakatan-Barisan leading the race at the outset, the coalition is likely to retain Selangor in the election.
And as the survey shows, Pakatan’s partnership with Barisan has not dented people’s support, with 68% of respondents saying that they think Pakatan and Barisan should contest as one coalition.
The survey by research company Endeavour-MGC (EMGC) was conducted with face-to-face interviews of 1,068 registered voters, who comprised 67.8% Malay, 15.6% Chinese, 12.4% Indian and 4.2% others. It covered 34 state constituencies considered marginal seats, defined as seats that Pakatan won with a less than 25% majority and in which it received below 50% of the popular vote in the 15th General Election (GE15) in 2022.
These marginal seats are home to 57% or more Malay voters. They also include Kuala Kubu Baru, which despite its Malay voters only numbering up to 46%, is classified as a Malay-majority due to the constituency’s racial makeup.
High approval ratings
According to the opinion poll, 75% of respondents from all races approve of the overall performance of the Pakatan-led Selangor state government and 77% approve of Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari’s performance as mentri besar. This includes 70% and 68% of Malay respondents, who gave high ratings for Amirudin as MB and the state government he led respectively.
The survey also shows that 76% (69% Malay respondents) feel Pakatan should choose Amirudin as the MB again if Pakatan wins the state polls. Likewise, 73% (64% Malay respondents) approve of the overall performance of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister while 73% (64% Malay respondents) approve of the overall performance of the unity government at the federal level.
Around 76% of the respondents (69% Malays) also approve of Pakatan and Barisan forming the unity government together after GE15.
At the ballot box, party remains the most important consideration for 61% of respondents (58% Malays) when casting their votes.
More than half of the respondents – 62% all races and 52% Malays – also say they would vote for Pakatan in the upcoming state elections.
Opposition bloc Perikatan is close behind with 22% (31% Malays), followed by Barisan with 11% (10% Malays). When asked how many of the 56 seats contested in Selangor will be won by the respective coalitions, Pakatan received 35 (Malays: 33) and Perikatan got 18 (Malays: 20).
ALSO READ: Survey: Brand trumps race and religion in Selangor
As EMGC concludes, based on this feedback – which was gathered before the July 29 nomination day – Selangor will remain a Pakatan-led state. However, the possibility of a Perikatan victory cannot be ruled out, it says. Specific conditions, as well as other variables during the ongoing campaign period, could spell victory for either side.
Perikatan’s challenge
There are two critical conditions that would need to be fulfilled for Perikatan to win the state, EMGC notes.
“The first condition is that the least-committed Pakatan and Barisan Malay voters swing to Perikatan, thereby reducing Malay support for Pakatan and Barisan to about one-third of all Malay votes cast.”
While they were Pakatan or Barisan supporters previously, EMGC says this group of voters is disappointed with the two parties’ handling of issues relating to Malay rights and religion.
“This bloc of voters is likely to mostly comprise former Barisan voters but also even some smaller segments of Pakatan voters.”
At the same time, many are unsure of the effectiveness of the Malaysia Madani economic policies with 68% of Malay respondents (70% of all races) saying they are not aware of any government policies or initiatives aimed at curbing inflation or reducing the cost of living. And 56% of Malays surveyed (54% all races) say that they are extremely concerned about the impact of inflation on their personal finances.
The second condition for a Opposition victory entails voter turnout: EMGC says Perikatan can win if the Malay voter turnout on polling day is 20% higher or more than the non-Malay turnout.
It points out that such a situation occurred in the 2022 Johor state polls when Malay voters’ turnout was estimated to have been 25% more than non-Malays’.
“If the non-Malay voter turnout stands at 65%, the Malay voter turnout has to be at 85% [for Perikatan to win,” EMGC notes.
At the time the survey was held, 85% of voters of all races said they would come out to vote, and 85% of the Malay respondents also said they would vote on Aug 12.
The ‘green’ factor
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s political expert Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul attributes a possible Perikatan win to the “green wave” campaign, among others.
At the same time, he says, “voters feel that the Federal Government has failed to deliver a better economic solution. The prices of goods are still increasing and the ringgit is still weak compared with the US dollar.”
He says another possible factor in a Perikatan win in Selangor is “the lack of confidence in the cooperation between Pakatan and Barisan” as the federal government.
Echoing Ainul’s views, EMGC says during GE15 Perikatan employed successful campaign strategies, especially through social media, to capture both the Malay bloc from Barisan’s vote bank and new voters.
This survey revealed that 14% of the Malay respondents in the 34 constituencies will vote along religious lines, which is another plus for Perikatan.
Nevertheless, EMGC says it remains to be seen if Perikatan will continue to raise sensitive race and religion issues in its efforts to bag more Malay votes – while such a strategy could be effective in fulfilling the first condition required to win Selangor, it could also work against Perikatan by turning more non-Malay voters against them.
As for Pakatan, EMGC says unless Perikatan fulfils the two conditions – and specifically in reference to the 34 marginal seats – the Pakatan-Barisan pact could win Selangor, albeit with only a simple majority.
From the survey, the concentration of Malays in the marginal constituencies leaning towards voting for Perikatan is considerably high at 31%. However, 52% of the respondents from the same community said they will vote for Pakatan.
Only 10% of Malays there said they will vote for Barisan, indicating a possible dismal performance by candidates from the coalition and pulling down overall results for Pakatan-Barisan.
EMGC also found that for straight fights in Selangor, 39% of the Malay samples said they will vote for Perikatan while 61% will choose Pakatan.
Show of unity vital
Universiti Malaya’s political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi says Pakatan and Barisan need to showcase their political unity at the federal level to voters on the ground.
“For example, we have yet to see DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke and Umno secretary-general Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki campaigning together for the state polls, or youth chiefs from the respective parties going hand-in-hand to meet the voters.”
This type of strategy to exhibit unity “is yet to be clear”, he says.
Ainul says among the factors that could lead to a decline in support for Pakatan in Selangor is the desire to see how a new government will perform in administrating the state.
“Another factor is if voters are not convinced the government is putting in enough effort to resolve bread and butter issues.”
Assoc Prof Awang says it is also possible voter sentiments for or against the setting up of the federal unity government could affect the outcome of the state polls.
“This is because, for example, the people in Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan are more familiar with federal policies outlined by the Pakatan-led government.
“In comparison, the people in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu are not so in tune with the policies set by the unity government, and have a distrust towards Barisan.”
This survey is part of the Media in Arms’ special report on the state elections. ANN
ANN
.