In Selangor, could protest votes menace Pakatan’s hold on state?
However, they said this would not be enough to put the coalition at risk of losing its hold on the country’s richest and most industrialised state, predicting that the phenomenon would be limited to fringes of the coalition’s support.
“I think PH supporters are pragmatic. Because if they protest by not voting Umno in the upcoming state election, they are basically supporting the other side, that is PAS.
“Between Umno and PAS, Umno is preferable [for PH supporters],” he said.
Political analyst Mujibu Abd Muis said Umno grassroots remained reluctant to support PH because of DAP, meaning the coalition could not count on the Malay nationalist party’s supporters for the August 12 state election.
“However, in the case of Selangor, it is not a big issue for PH as Umno is not as dominant as it used to be, due to the fact that it only won four seats there in the 14th general election compared to PH’s 51 seats,” he said.
While PH would be relatively safe against the so-called “green wave” — the term given to the groundswell of support for PN’s religious conservatism from the 15th general election — Mujibu said seats given to Umno to contest in Selangor could be at risk.
He said the Malay nationalist party could struggle to fend off Islamist party PAS in the Malay majority seats, particularly in the northern edge of the state.
However, he said Umno also could get an advantage in seats with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia incumbents, citing the backlash against the latter in GE15 that cost senior leaders such as Datuk Seri Azmin Ali his Gombak federal seat.
“But for PN to wrestle Selangor for PH is still mission impossible,” Mujibu concluded.
When contacted, assistant professor of political science at International Islamic University Malaysia Syaza Shukri predicted a status quo in Selangor despite the political upheaval since GE15.
She anticipated that PH would win at least 40 seats from the 56 in the state, with PN likely to capture around 10 or more, which was where both coalitions stood when the Selangor assembly was dissolved.
“I think Selangor and Penang will be relatively safe for PH. There will be some seats that they might lose but it’s not a major concern,” she said.
Syaza explained that PH should retain most of its seats on the back of its existing supporters, whom she said were unlikely to cast protest votes in a significant manner as they still considered the coalition to be largely in control of the national unity government under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
Instead of protest votes, she said it was more likely that disgruntled PH supporters would simply abstain from voting in the state election.
According to Universiti Sains Malaysia Social Science Studies Centre lecturer Sivamurugan Pandian, protest votes would most likely feature in Selangor’s 34 Malay-majority seats.
The severity of this to either PH or BN would also depend on the presence of internal sabotage, he said.
With non-Malay votes firmly in PH’s corner, however, he said the coalition should still be able to retain its existing seats, “but with a slimmer majority.”
On Wednesday, the Election Commission announced that polling for Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu state elections will be on August 12.
The 14th Selangor state assembly with its 56 seats was officially dissolved on June 23 following the consent of Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah. MM
SINGAPORE SURVEY SHOWS MADANI IS GOING TO LOSE SELANGOR. ITS TOO LATE.
No. 1 First the kedai kopi surveys. One kedai kopi survey says the following:
*Kajian sikap menjelang PRN 6 negeri memperlihat mood rakyat seperti berikut*
- *KEDAH* PN 33 kerusi VS PH+BN 3 kerusi
- *SELANGOR* PN 31 kerusi VS PH+BN 25 kerusi
- *PENANG* PN 18 kerusi VS PH+BN 22 kerusi
- *KELANTAN* PN 45 kerusi VS PH+BN 0 kerusi
- *TERENGGANU* PN 30 kerusi VS PH+BN 2 kerusi
- *NEGERI SEMBILAN* PN 29 kerusi vs PH+BN 7 kerusi
Kajian sikap ini melalui kedai kedai kopi, restoran,dan tempat tempat awam org ramai berkumpul yg dilihat tidak berpuas hati dgn pentadbiran hari ini antara pokok suara rakyat berkaitan ekonomi, nilai ringgit, harga barang yg meningkat, gaji yg minimum membebani kehidupan hari ini dgn kenaikkan harga barang, loan bank.
Di Penang pula rata rata masyarakat bangsa Cina dilihat tidak berpuas hati pentadbiran kerajaan pusat hari ini yg tidak fokus terhadap ekonomi negara, nilai ringgit yg jatuh, harga barang naik.
Masyarakat Cina Penang juga dilihat kurang senang dgn sikap pemimpin kerajaan Penang yg tidak menekan kerajaan pusat agar fokus kepada ekonomi negara dan isu kenaikkan harga barang serta kurang senang kerjasama kerajaan pusat dgn parti UMNO yg mereka lihat sebagai parti rasuah dan parti mencuri harta kekayaan negara untuk poket pemimpin UMNO. Kajian ini sentiasa berubah mengikut isu isu semasa negara.
No 2 is another survey found at Permadu Blogspot which indicates the same thing – serious loss of support for the Pakatan Harapan.
https://permadumalaysia.blogspot.com/2023/07/tinjauan-terbaru-menunjukkan-pn-bakal.html?m=1
No 3 is very interesting. It is a very long and indepth survey by Singapore’s renowned Yusuf Ishak Institute (Institute of South East Asian Studies) which projects that the Madani fellows will lose Selangor.
You can read the very in-depth survey and its findings here : https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2023-50-why-perikatan-nasional-may-win-in-selangor-by-marzuki-mohamad-and-khairul-syakirin-zulkifliHere is my summary:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
no significant vote transferability between PH and BN
Malay voters may not transfer their votes to PH, BN or vice versa
survey found Malays will transfer their votes to PN in 39 Malay-majority seats
winds of change are blowing in Selangor
survey conducted from 1 March to 20 April 2023
1,200 samples across ethnic groups
Unity gomen comprising rivalled and ideologically incompatible parties
UMNO grassroots questioned ‘unholy alliance’ with DAP
Malays 54% of Selangor’s population, Chinese 32%, Indian 13%, and others 1%
(OSTB: Not all those 54% Malays in Selangor are native Selangor citizens. Many are from other States and vote in their home States, especially Kelantanese folks. This dilutes the Malay vote in Selangor)
- 31% Malays will vote PN, 23% BN, 22% PH, 24% refused to answer
- 39% Malays will vote PN if straight fight PN – PH
- Only 15% will vote for PH
- seven out of ten BN Malay voters will vote PN, instead of PH
- whopping 46% of BN Malay voters NOW “unsure voters” category
- at least 60% of “unsure” voters more likely to vote PN
- we estimate at least 67% of BN Malay voters in S’gor will vote PN
- 60% satisfied with Muhyiddin Yassin
- 43% satisfied with Madani man
- Zahid lowest only 17%
- 58% not satisfied with federal government, economy
- 57% say their personal income worse than previous year
My Comments :
I think I have read enough. The bontots are going to get their butts kicked. Some may squeal while others may remember the sensation. This seems to be a well done survey by the Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore.
I think the clincher is here :
- straight fights 39% Malays vote PN, only 15% will vote PH
- seven out of ten BN Malay voters will vote PN, instead of PH
Madani is going to get kicked out of Selangor.
I think we can quite safely assume that Malay voters in Negeri Sembilan will also behave in the same manner. Despite the popularity of Mat Hassan (UMNO’s Tok Mat) in Negeri I think the economic and money woes being faced by the Malays will not favour BN or PH in Negeri.
The next question is when will the Federal gomen fall?
According to Hamzah Zainuddin (from sources) there will be a change in the Federal gomen in September.
Sarawak will be watching the outcome of the six State polls very carefully. That Tiong King Sing and the KLIA scandal has echoed around Sarawak quite loudly.
Its too late now for them to do anything. Send the radio cars? How stupid can you get?
Bye Bye. Good riddance. – http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/
Selangor polls: Azmin says he won’t stand for election in his ‘kampung’ of Hulu Kelang
Azmin said he did not want to be a candidate there because it was his hometown.
“Hulu Kelang has been my hometown since I was four years old, since 1968, and yes, I have been offered to stand there but I have offers from others too.
After three terms, Hulu Kelang assemblyman Saari Sungib will reportedly not defend his seat in the upcoming state election for health reasons.
The seat also became a hot topic recently when it was reported that Umno was gunning for it.
Saari, who first won the seat in 2008 under Islamist party PAS, held the Hulu Kelang seat in 2013 and later 2018 when he left PAS to form Amanah.
In 2018, Saari won with a 15,349-vote majority over Barisan Nasional candidate Ismail Ahmad.
On Wednesday, the Election Commission (EC) set August 12 as voting day in elections which will be held simultaneously in six states, namely Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.
EC chairman Tan Sri Abdul Ghani Salleh also announced that nomination day was set for July 29, while early voting date will take place on August 8. MM
MALAY MAIL / http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/
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