BOMBSHELL – JAILED MALAYSIAN PM NAJIB EYES WITH KEEN INTEREST THE ‘LANGKAWI, MALAYSIA’ MOVE THAT GOT THAILAND’S THAKSIN A ROYAL PARDON – WILL A COMPLOT BASED ON A SIMILAR UNSCRUPULOUS DESIGN BE USED TO FREE HIM? – AND BY WHICH TEAM OF POWERBROKERS, POLITICAL WARLORDS? – ALREADY, WHISPERS OF MYSTERIOUS MOVES ARE SNAKING THROUGH MALAYSIA’S POLITICAL SWAMP
Whispers and mysterious moves
DURING campaigning for the Thai elections in May, there were whispers about a possible Langkah Langkawi (Langkawi Move).
A few days before the May 14 polls, de facto Pheu Thai party leader and self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra met with top officials of the Thai conservative establishment in a luxury hotel on Pulau Langkawi. Sources in Thai political circles shared photographs of participants of the secret meeting arriving separately on the Malaysian island close to Thailand.
The talk was that the conservative establishment, which had been behind the coup d’etat that ousted Thaksin on Sept 19, 2006, made a deal with Thaksin: Parties linked to the conservatives would support Pheu Thai, which was expected to win the most MPs, to form the government.
It was a win-win proposition.
Pheu Thai gets back in power and the conservative establishment prevents the anti-military/anti-royalty Move Forward Party from getting into power. And Thaksin, who had been in self-imposed exile for 15 years and sentenced in absentia for abuse of power would return home.
Prodigal son: Thaksin, with daughter Paetongtarn beside him, receiving a celebrity’s welcome from his supporters at Don Muang airport in Bangkok on Aug 22. — AP
During campaigning, Pheu Thai had to address concerns from the progressive electorate that it was planning to team up with the parties led by the “uncles”.
“Uncles” refer to then prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who led the 2014 coup against Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, and then deputy prime minister General Prawit Wongsuwan, who assisted Prayut’s coup. Prayut and Prawit are leaders of the United Thai Nation Party and the Palang Pracharath Party respectively.
On April 18, one of Pheu Thai’s prime minister candidates, Paetongtarn Shinawatra – Thaksin’s youngest daughter – told the media that her party would not join “parties from the opposite side”.
Paetongtarn said her face clearly showed she did not “enjoy” the two coups that ousted her father’s and her aunt’s governments: “About the next coalition government, I want everybody to look at my face – it certainly does not show like I liked the two recent coups,” she said.
“I have not answered the question of forming a coalition government clearly yet because I treat voters and this nation with respect.
“I also didn’t answer these questions because the election has not been held yet.”
In hindsight, Paetongtarn’s declaration reminds me of the pledge made in front of Umno party delegates ahead of Malaysia’s 15th General Election last November by Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi: “No Anwar [PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim], No DAP.” Well, we know how that turned out….
Then Langkah Langkawi hit a snag in Thailand: After the May 14 elections, the Move Forward Party won 151 seats out of 500, while Pheu Thai got 141.
This meant that Pheu Thai had to go through the motions of supporting the party with the most seats to bid for the prime minister post. “Go through the motions” only because it knew it was only a matter of time before Move Forward leader Pita Limja-roenrat’s attempt to get support for his PM bid would be rebuffed by the non-elected Senate.
“Pita himself knows he won’t be PM. He is bidding to be PM to show to Thais that the prime minister’s post would be stolen from him,” a Thai political analyst told me at the time.
“Pita’s plan is to continue with his progressive agenda for the country and go for the prime minister’s post in the next Thai polls.
“But it won’t be easy for Pita and the Move Forward Party. The powers-that-be might ban him from politics and dissolve the Move Forward Party to kill it so they can cling to power.”
If that happens, history would be repeating itself in Thailand: In 2020, the Constitutional Court dissolved the Future Forward Party, the previous reincarnation of Move Forward, and banned it from participating in politics for 10 years, along with its billionaire founder Thanathorn Juangroong-ruangkit.
After Pita failed to get enough votes to become PM, Pheu Thai was given the opportunity to get the numbers. It swiftly ditched Move Forward as an alliance partner and aligned with the conservative establishment, including two parties controlled by the uncles and the Bhumjaithai Party, which had won the third-most number of seats, at 71.
As scripted by Langkah Langkawi, the parties linked up with the coup-makers, and Pheu Thai is now in a coalition government.
The conservative establishment needs Pheu Thai and Thaksin to neutralise the rise of the Move Forward Party. Pita’s party is a force to be reckoned with after winning 38% of the votes cast in the Thai elections.
One way the conservatives can weaken Move Forward’s position is to replicate the economic boom associated with Thailand when Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.
Pheu Thai and the conservative establishment’s deal is somewhat ironic for Thai political watchers. The conservatives and Thaksin have been rivals for power since 2006. They were reportedly behind the military coup against Thaksin and again against Yingluck.
On Aug 21, Thaksin returned home to a celebrity’s welcome even if he was immediately led off to jail. The Supreme Court had sentenced him in absentia to eight years of jail for three convictions: one linked to his former company, another to a bank loan, and the third to a lottery case.
The former PM returned to the country the same day the Thai Parliament elected Srettha Thavisin as Prime Minister. Srettha was one of three Pheu Thai PM candidates.
Thaksin received a royal pardon on Friday, which reduced his jail sentence to a year.
The whispered about Langkah Langkawi (and other secret deals inside and outside Thailand) has succeeded. – ANN
Powerful new roles seen for deposed Najib and Thaksin
The two former prime ministers, both now imprisoned, may have pivotal roles to play in ensuring the political stability of their nations.
The dramatic return of Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his imprisonment on charges of corruption occurred almost one year to the day that Malaysia’s former prime minister Najib Razak became an inmate at Kajang prison, near Kuala Lumpur.
Narratives such as ‘Thaksin was worse than Hitler’, and ‘Najib is the king of the kleptocrats’, were used to destroy their reputations.
In the case of Najib, it was thought his imprisonment would make him irrelevant to contemporary politics, and he would disappear. That didn’t happen. Najib still has deep influence within Umno.
Destiny from opportunity
It now appears that destiny (or opportunity) may enable both ex-prime ministers to play a major role in their respective national political environments some time in the near future.
There is much speculation that deals have been done in both cases.
On Thaksin’s part, the conjecture goes that he will spend a symbolic period in prison (or prison hospital) and then be given a full pardon by Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn.
On Najib’s part, many speculated he was part of some form of deal when the “unity government” was created, after the November 2022 general election. However, there are doubts. Najib is languishing in prison until there is some opportune purpose for him to fulfil. Public pressure also wants to see Najib spend a good percentage of his 12-year jail sentence.
Consequently, the release of both Thaksin and Najib appears to be related to public optics.
Thaksin’s position is clearer. He may be released soon, as many Thais support him, and it is clear the establishment has clearly accepted his return and the fact he will play some future political role.
Najib’s case is much more complex. There seems to be either setbacks or changes in opinion about his release by those with the power to pardon him. Although Najib was acquitted in April of audit tampering, his attempt to suspend the ongoing 1MDB trial was dismissed by the court.
Prior legacies needed now
Both prime ministers did leave legacies from their previous time in office.
Thaksin was prime minister from 2001, and was ousted in a military coup in 2006. Thaksin did a lot to eliminate poverty in rural Thailand, through grassroots community development. The Thaksin government managed well fiscally, paying off loans taken from the IMF during the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
Najib was prime minister from 2009, where he was defeated in the 2018 general election by the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Ironically, Najib can be considered a mild reformer in government. Najib assisted the poor through handouts, initiated some economic liberalisation, and tried to transform the civil service. This is more than any other prime minister has done in the last five years.
Thaksin’s role could be very important as the Pheu Thai party is in an uncomfortable coalition with establishment parties Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath, and the United Thai Nation Party. Someone needs to hold this fragile coalition together. The ultimate survival of this government will depend upon maintaining a good working relationship between civilian politicians, the monarchy, and the military.
Someone must also appease disappointed “red shirts” and the youth who supported Move Forward. These groups feel they have been betrayed. Only Thaksin might be able to deal with this.
Thaksin may play this pivotal role from a platform like the Privy Council, which would give him statesmanlike stature similar to former prime minister Prem Tinsulanonda, who died in 2019.
Umno and Pakatan Harapan
For Najib, it appears he is being kept in cold storage. Umno’s poor performance at the recent six state assembly elections has opened up discussion about the future leadership of the party.
The fate of Umno, and Anwar Ibrahim’s PH coalition will depend upon winning over the Malay vote in the next general elections. Thus, if Umno can’t do the job, PH will also fall from the government.
This is leading to conjecture that Najib might be one of the few people who could bring Umno back from the dead, and re-establish the party as a contender in the Malay heartlands.
However, many feel the time is still premature. The opportune window might be when the position of king is rotated at the end of this year.
Such a move may steady up the chances of the unity government surviving the next general election. The results of the coming by-elections in Johor in a couple of weeks may influence this. Releasing Najib is a price the leadership may be willing to pay.
If these scenarios occur, Najib like Thaksin would play an important political role in Malaysia. He would become the elder statesman that keeps the unity coalition together, keeping it as a credible alternative to Perikatan Nasional.
There is also talk that Najib may play an economic advisory role to a government that has lost its way with economic policy.
Both Thaksin and Najib are set for future roles in their respective countries. Anything can happen in these politically volatile political environments, in Malaysia and in Thailand. However, the above scenarios are looking a strong possibility. FREE MALAYSIA TODAY
ANN / FREE MALAYSIA TODAY
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