ANWAR & PAKATAN-UMNO DRAW FIRST BLOOD – AS SARAWAK & SABAH’S KINGMAKER DUO ABANG JO & HAJIJI SEND POWERFUL MESSAGE TO MUHYIDDIN, HADI & PN-PAS ON NOMINATION DAY ITSELF – INDEED, A ‘SURPRISING WIN’ LOOKS SET FOR UNITY GOVT TO CHALK UP

State assembly elections are not usually considered as important as parliamentary elections for the simple reason that in Malaysia power almost wholly lies with the federal government.

But the six state elections that will take place on Aug 12 are seen as crucial for both the ruling coalition and the opposition, and everyone seems excited.

Before the dissolution of the state assemblies of Penang, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, the former three states were ruled by the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional combination while the latter three states were under Perikatan Nasional.

Analysts and politicians continue to discuss and air their views about which coalition is likely to win.

The PH leader himself did not want to predict a score, only saying that the collaboration between PH and BN would create a “surprising win” in the state elections.

PN leader Muhyiddin Yassin feels that with a little push from Malay voters even Penang will fall to his coalition, while BN leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is confident the PH-BN coalition will take all six states.

Certainly, there’s a lot of wishful thinking on the part of everyone mentioned above.

Most observers feel comfortable predicting that the status quo will remain, although many of them add that PN will make more inroads into Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

The outcome of the state elections will have some bearing on the direction – even the leadership – of parties within both the unity government and PN, especially on Umno.

But I do not expect it to have any impact on the federal government. The unity government will remain intact, even if it were to lose a state or two, at least until the next general election.

I would say that the first victory in this battle between PH-BN and PN has been won by the former, even before polling day, by getting the chief ministers of Sarawak and Sabah to visit nomination centres and meet PH-BN candidates on July 29.

I believe it is the first time the executive heads of Sarawak and Sabah – who are also heads of the ruling coalitions in their respective states – have jointly accompanied candidates in Peninsular Malaysia on nomination day.

Malaysians would have seen videos and photos of Anwar (PH president) together with Sarawak premier Abang Johari Openg (Gabungan Parti Sarawak leader), Sabah chief minister Hajiji Noor (Gabungan Rakyat Sabah head) and BN secretary-general Zambry Abdul Kadir (Umno Supreme Council member) visiting nomination centres in Selangor.

It sends a message to both friend and foe that the partners within the unity government are standing as one in facing the state elections in the six states in Peninsular Malaysia.

This should motivate PH-BN party workers to work even harder to ensure victory for as many of their candidates as possible.

It should also convince some voters – especially fence sitters – that the unity government is here to stay despite talk by the opposition and some analysts that the unity government is weak or fraying and could collapse after the state polls.

Importantly, it sends an unequivocal message to everyone – especially the opposition PN – about where the allegiance of the Sarawak and Sabah coalitions lies.

I think it was a deft political move by Anwar to get both Abang Johari and Hajiji to accompany him to visit three nomination centres and meet PH-BN candidates.

While it further cements the partnership between these coalitions, it also irretrievably ties the Bornean states to the fate of PH-BN. They are now fully invested in ensuring PH-BN does well so that the unity government can continue to do well.

I’m not surprised that Hajiji met Sabah voters at the Royal Chulan Hotel here on Friday night and told them to vote PH-BN. He said: “It is crucial that Sabah voters, especially those voting in the coming six state elections in Semenanjung, pick unity government candidates to maintain the country’s political dynamics for a better future.”

The presence of Abang Johari and Hajiji at the nomination centres makes any possible move by the opposition to topple the unity government after the state polls even more difficult. Although anything can happen in politics, chances of their aligning with PN – at least after the state elections – is minimal, for it would be extremely embarrassing.

PN cannot possibly entice Umno to join it, and certainly not the DAP or PKR, so its chances of removing the Anwar government have become remote. As I said, a deft move by Anwar.

Perception plays an important role in politics and voters will likely see it as the strongest example yet of the trust Sarawak and Sabah leaders have in Anwar. Those who see this may consider giving their vote to PH-BN to enable it to continue governing on a stronger footing.

So I won’t be surprised if PH-BN does better then analysts would have us believe.

It is very possible that fence-sitters, and even some of those who voted for PN in the last general election, may decide to give the unity government a chance until the next general election.

And that, I think, is enough time for the Anwar administration to show what it can do and, at the same time, strengthen itself.

So, first strike to PH-BN.

FREE MALAYSIA TODAY

.