PETALING JAYA: With a week to go before campaigning officially begins in the six state elections, attention is increasing on the “hot” seats that could change hands and potentially decide the future government of each state.

These are seats that were won with slim margins of fewer than 2,000 votes in the 2018 general election, making them vulnerable to being captured by either coalition contesting in the Aug 12 elections, said analysts.

Popular political leaders could also turn up the temperature in the seats they are contesting if they face off against other political titans.

Election analyst Dr G. Manimaran estimated that up to 73 or 29% of the 245 seats up for grabs in the state polls are hot seats.

Of the 73, 41 are in Pakatan Harapan-led states of Selangor (25), Negri Sembilan (11) and Penang (five), he said.

In the Perikatan Nasional-controlled states, Kelantan has 13 seats that will be hotly contested, while Kedah and Terengganu have 10 and nine respectively, added Manimaran, who used to serve under the Electoral Reform Committee.

Selangor has a total of 56 seats, followed by Kelantan at 45, Penang, 40, Negri Sembilan and Kedah 36 each, and Terengganu at 32.

The biggest coalitions in the state polls are Pakatan and its ally Barisan Nasional, which will face Perikatan comprising PAS, Bersatu and Gerakan.

Manimaran said current political developments remain fluid and the number of hot seats will change again when political coalitions announce all their candidates over the next few days.

The state polls, he reiterated, will see tense battles for the Malay-Muslim vote.

“In 2018, the fight was between Pakatan and Barisan. This time, there are four coalitions – Pakatan, Barisan, Perikatan and Gerakan Tanah Air – in the fray,” said Manimaran.

“PKR, Umno and Amanah have to deliver the Malay votes,” he said.

PKR and Amanah are part of Pakatan while Umno is Barisan’s linchpin party.

Barisan announced its line-up in Kuala Lumpur last night while PKR follows suit tonight.

In Selangor, the number of hot seats has vastly increased since 2018 due to the rise in support among Malay-Muslim voters towards Perikatan.

“In Selangor, Perikatan won six parliamentary seats – Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Tanjong Karang, Kapar and Kuala Langat – in the recent 15th General Election.

“There are at least 25 state seats that we need to observe in the state polls,” said Manimaran.

In Negri Sembilan, he said, there are at least 11 seats that will be closely watched, including Sungai Lui, Klawang, Serting, Gemas, Rantau and Chembong, due to them being Malay-majority seats.

The prospect of former health minister and Rembau MP Khairy Jamaluddin campaigning in Negri Sembilan could also raise the mercury in the state as he has stated that he will assist Perikatan.

In Penang, the interesting seats are Penaga, Penanti, Permatang Pasir, Teluk Bahang and Bayan Lepas, said Manimaran.

“The focus is on whether Umno can win and deliver these seats,” he added.

Some of these state seats are under the Permatang Pauh, Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor parliamentary constituencies which Perikatan had won in GE15.

Similarly in Kelantan and Terengganu, Manimaran said, the question will be whether Umno can muster enough Malay support to capture seats that had been lost to PAS, the biggest party in the Perikatan alliance.

This is since 13 seats in Kelantan and nine in Terengganu were won with marginal majorities in 2018.

However, in GE15 last year, Perikatan swept up all 14 parliamentary seats in Kelantan and all eight parliamentary constituencies in Terengganu.

In 2018, PAS won 36 state seats in Kelantan and 22 in Terengganu.

Among the constituencies linked to political icons that will be closely watched are Padang Kota held by Penang caretaker Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow, Pantai Jerejak by Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, Bukit Antarabangsa by Selangor Perikatan chairman Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, and Sungai Tua by caretaker Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari.

However, it has been reported that Saifuddin and Azmin could be fielded in other seats or opt not to contest.

Other hot seats will be Chennah, which will likely be defended by Transport Minister Anthony Loke, Rantau by Defence Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, Ru Rendang by Terengganu caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar and Jitra by Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir among others.

Another closely watched seat will be Jeneri, which is likely to be defended by Kedah’s controversial caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor.  ANN