WARNING OF DANGEROUS UNDERCURRENTS, KHAIRY GETS IT RIGHT ON ANWAR – PM10 IS ACTUALLY SITTING PRETTY, CHALKING STRONG GAINS IN THE SHORT SPACE OF TIME SINCE TAKING OFFICE – SO LONG AS HE DOESN’T SELF-DESTRUCT BY HELPING ‘DEAD WEIGHT’ ZAHID & UMNO SECURE NAJIB’S ROYAL PARDON – SELANGOR, N.SEMBILAN & PENANG WILL STILL BE PAKATAN’S TO LOSE – AND IF THE WINNING MAJORITIES ARE LESS THAN BEFORE, DON’T GIVE INTO PANIC – JUST CONTINUE WITH PAKATAN’S LONG-STATED PROGRAMS & LET THE CONSPIRACISTS & ALARMISTS WASTE THEIR OWN TIME BARKING AT THE MOON – PERHAPS IT’S EVEN TIME TO REIN IN ‘KING’ ZAHID & UMNO BEFORE THEY GET TOO CONFIDENT & START THEIR PILLAGING WAYS AGAIN

Business, Politics | April 13, 2023 12:52 pm by | 0 Comments

Anwar’s coalition government: Navigating tricky undercurrents

The PM has secured some breathing space after the passing of his maiden budget and a successful trip to Beijing – but he has dangerous undercurrents to navigate going into the state elections.

HAVING consolidated his position as Prime Minister with the passing of his maiden budget in Parliament, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim now has an added spring in his step following a well-received visit to China. While he failed to secure meetings with top Saudi Arabian leaders on an earlier trip, he delivered in China. In addition to meetings with President Xi Jinping and newly appointed Premier Li Qiang, Anwar secured RM170bil worth of investment deals. In essence, Anwar was able to achieve more in a single visit than Najib Razak, who was much-lauded for upgrading bilateral relations with China.

With some deliverables on the table, Anwar is now less worried about his administration’s viability. He is now focused on governing and crafting a narrative for Malaysia’s place in the world at a time of geopolitical tensions. Anwar has also spent the fasting month of Ramadan running a busy schedule, breaking fast with different segments of society every night.

Yet, dangerous undercurrents lurk below the calm waters. In a few months, Malaysia will head to a set of state-level elections. Six states are up for grabs – three held by Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan coalition and three held by PAS, which is part of the Perikatan Nasional Opposition coalition. The states concerned – Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan, Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan – are a cross-section of Malaysia’s diversity. In other words, the results will be representative of what the country thinks – at least in the peninsula.

These elections will lay bare Anwar’s greatest challenge; increasing his coalition’s vote share in Malay ground. Several analysts have put Pakatan’s Malay vote share during the general elections last year at less than 15%. Going into the state elections, it will be impossible for Anwar to secure any of the northern states especially, and he will have to keep an eye on his own strongholds, especially Selangor. Perikatan has also borrowed a leaf from Anwar’s playbook as the opposition. Without the need to shoulder the hard realities of being in government, it is championing populist causes such as pushing for Malaysians to be allowed to make withdrawals from their EPF accounts.

Anwar must also navigate these waters with a dead weight tied to his legs in the form of his tainted Deputy Prime Minister and partner in the coalition government, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. Ahmad Zahid is Umno president, the leading party in the Barisan Nasional coalition. After purging his party of rivals (including the author) and returning unopposed during his party’s internal elections, he has wasted no time, flexing his political muscles by consolidating his position in the party and government.

Ahamd Zahid has generously doled out senior board-level appointments in statutory bodies and government-linked companies (GLC) to supporters. He also engineered a takeover of the Melaka state government, sacrificing a politically dispensable chief minister and replacing him with an arch loyalist. He has also managed to continue to postpone his corruption trial, which was meant to resume this week and is trying to convince the public prosecutor to drop the charges altogether. Anwar’s political capital is taking a hit, given Ahmad Zahid’s controversial reputation and the impression that he is rewarding his supporters and cronies unchecked. Of greater concern to Anwar is if Umno becomes an electoral liability during the state polls.

Anwar’s Umno headache is not limited to Ahmad Zahid. He has to contend with Umno’s incarcerated éminence grise, Datuk Seri Najib Razak. After having failed in his bid to get his case reviewed by the Federal Court, Najib has run out of options. He either has to serve his term in prison or apply for a royal pardon. Although pardons have been given in the past to convicted politicians, including Anwar, this is by no means assured given the scale and nature of Najib’s crimes.

Anwar’s political capital is taking a hit, given Ahmad Zahid’s controversial reputation and the impression that he is rewarding his supporters and cronies unchecked. Of greater concern to Anwar is if Umno becomes an electoral liability during the state polls.

Najib’s supporters, which make up at least half of Umno’s ruling council, have launched a petition to support his pardon. They have launched an assault on the judiciary by leaking investigation documents against the trial judge that convicted him. Although the Malaysian judiciary has not established any wrongdoing on the part of the judge, Najib’s supporters believe the smear campaign will strengthen his application for a royal pardon. The fact that they are increasingly agitated may have an impact on Ahmad Zahid’s hold on the party. In light of this, Ahmad Zahid has instructed Umno to formally petition the King for Najib’s pardon. Anwar’s support may well erode if he is unable to defend the judiciary against Najib’s and Umno’s attacks.

These undercurrents will impact the state elections. Given the results will not affect his coalition in Parliament, a collapse of his administration would not necessarily follow. However, losing Selangor or Negri Sembilan would be a tremendous setback for Anwar. Perikatan has identified these two states as key battlegrounds – if they capture these two states and sustain the momentum for a couple of years, they would be in a good position to score an outright victory come the next general election.

Luckily for Anwar, things in these two states do not look grim, at least on paper. A quick analysis of the results from the parliamentary elections and transposing them onto corresponding state seats shows an uphill struggle for Perikatan in these two states. These rough calculations show that based on the general election results, Perikatan would bag two state seats in Negri Sembilan, with the rest going to Pakatan (18) and Barisan (16). In Selangor, Perikatan would fare slightly better with 12 seats, but this is still short of Pakatan ‘s 41 seats.

Malaysia’s political landscape has changed significantly since November. But Perikatan’s chances can be boosted if they secure prominent and popular “poster boy/girl” candidates offered as potential leaders of the states should they win. Furthermore, the political undercurrents currently being felt in Malaysia may gain strength and threaten Anwar’s stability if he and his allies cannot successfully navigate through them.

WRITER – Khairy Jamaluddin is a visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. He previously was the health minister (and also coordinating minister for the Covid-19 Immunisation Programme), youth and sports minister as well as science and technology minister.

ANN