NEXT ACID TEST – PULAI BY-ELECTION ON SEPT 9 – CAN ANWAR, PAKATAN & UMNO RETAIN THE LATE SALAHUDDIN ‘MENU RAHMAH’S’ SEAT?

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan must record a convincing win in the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state seat by-elections, especially after the outcome of the recently concluded six state elections, analysts said.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said winning both seats would allow PH, and indirectly Barisan Nasional, to demonstrate that losses suffered in the Aug 12 state elections can be recouped.

“PH needs to ensure it wins these two seats with a huge majority, similar to the last general election and Johor state election. But I would say it (would be) even better if it gets a bigger majority. It is important that PH not only capture these two seats, but capture them in style.”

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid agreed, saying winning both seats will boost the “sagging morale” of PH members.

“Moreover, the seats were held by a former minister who was popular across the board,” he said.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University expects the by-elections to be a barometer of the extent of Perikatan Nasional’s growing influence in the southern part of the peninsula.

With PN gaining ground in Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan in the Aug 12 polls, he said, the coalition would undoubtedly attempt to make inroads into Johor, too.

In the 2022 Johor state election, the late Salahuddin Ayub won the Simpang Jeram seat with a 2,399-vote majority after securing 8,749 votes against his rivals, PN’s Zarul Salleh (6,350), BN’s Lokman Don (6,062) and Pejuang’s Mahaizal Mahmor (208).

For the Pulai seat, Salahuddin defeated BN’s Nur Jazlan Mohamed in the 15th general election with a whopping majority of 33,174 votes, while PN’s Loh Kah Yong came in third.

According to 2018 data, both are mixed seats, with Malay voters making up a slight majority. BN has said it will make way for Amanah to contest the two seats.

All three analysts expect PH to successfully defend the seats, though Fauzi and Wong also foresee PN putting up a decent fight in the by-elections on Sept 9.

Wong said Umno votes might not transfer to PH and might go to PN instead, as evident in the state elections, except in Negeri Sembilan. Fauzi agreed, saying PN’s growing support was due to dissatisfied BN voters siding with PAS-PN.

“I expect this trend to continue, though not to the extent of dislodging PH’s hold on the seats,” Fauzi said.

“A crucial segment of the electorate here are BN voters. PH must get at least half of them to come out and vote for the PH candidates, not sit out the elections.

Fauzi said the fact that Salahuddin was popular and well-liked even by his political rivals would be a factor in helping retain past supporters.

He said fielding a close relative of Salahuddin as a candidate may also garner “sympathy votes”.

On the other hand, Azmi said, BN’s leadership of the Johor state government may help ensure Malay votes went to candidates endorsed by the coalition, despite apparent discontent over ties with DAP.

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