ANOTHER BAD GAMBLE BY ‘TIN KOSONG’ ANWAR – NOTHING FOR UMNO TO LOSE BUT EVERYTHING FOR PAKATAN TO GIVE UP – IGNORE UMNO’S NAJIB THREATS – ZAHID HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT TO STAY WITH UNITY GOVT EVEN IF ROYAL PARDON REJECTED – BUT IF AGONG REALLY GRANTS PARDON, PAKATAN WILL CRASH! – IS ZAHID’S ‘FRIENDSHIP’ REALLY SO IMPORTANT TO ANWAR?

Leaders from Umno and Pakatan Harapan have once again come to loggerheads, despite both now being in the same political pact that forms the government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Their main source of contention now is Najib Abdul Razak, a former prime minister and Umno president who is now being jailed over corruption charges related to 1MDB – a financial scandal that aided Harapan to bring down the Umno-led administration for the first time in history five years ago.

It started after the Umno supreme council made a decision, two weeks ago, to apply for a royal pardon for Najib. Harapan senior leaders, including DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang and PKR’s Hassan Abdul Karim, have since made statements in public warning Anwar that his administration would be at stake if Najib is set free.

The statements did not sit well with some Umno leaders, particularly supreme council member Mohd Puad Zarkashi, who immediately launched a salvo against Lim and Harapan, alleging that the Anwar-led coalition was afraid of Najib’s influence should he were to walk out of jail and back to leading Umno together with party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

This has led to questions on whether this can cause a fatal crack within the government and cost Anwar the support of Umno – the party that made it possible for him to become the country’s top executive officer.

James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, is of the view that whatever the outcome of Najib’s royal pardon application, it would not necessarily cause Umno to break away from the federal political pact.

Chin’s main argument is that Zahid practically has nowhere else to turn to, with only Perikatan Nasional (PN) as the other option.

However, he warned, an outcome that comes in favour of Najib would have a major impact on Harapan’s support base, particularly among its non-Malay voters.

“You cannot crack the unity government because Zahid, politically speaking, has no place to go.

“The danger is not (a crack within) the unity government. The danger is that Harapan supporters will abandon Harapan on this issue.

“I think it is clear if you look at the Harapan supporters… I am not talking about the Malay ground. The non-Malay grounds, 90 percent or more, are solidly against a pardon for Najib because they really believe Najib is guilty and deserves to be in jail,” Chin added.

Analyst Oh Ei Sun also shared a similar observation, saying that it is unlikely for Umno to make amends with PN.

“Umno is likely to be in an uproar (if Najib doesn’t get the royal pardon), but only for a short while, since it has nowhere else to turn to, and it is likely that it would not flip to PN side,” said the senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

However, Oh, a one-time political secretary to Najib, said while many Harapan supporters despise Najib and may abandon the coalition if the former PM was pardoned, they should carefully weigh their stands on the matter.

This, he claimed, was due to their inability to attract the support of the majority of Malay voters who seem to prefer PN.

“And whether Harapan supporters like it or not, a freed Najib may be the only glimmer of hope that could win over some Malay votes for the government side in the forthcoming state elections and beyond.

“So the Harapan parties will have to carefully weigh their stands on Najib’s pardon,” he said.

‘More of public relations ploy’

On the other hand, Chin believes that the hoo-ha over Najib’s pardon today is only more of a “public relations ploy”.

There is no way for Najib to get a royal pardon anytime soon, he claimed, given that the former prime minister is also facing a slew of other criminal trials which would need to be exhausted first.

“…my point is that you cannot plea for a royal pardon if you have some other outstanding court cases.

“So, a lot of this has got to do with the Umno assembly, where the delegates were calling for Umno to intervene, so they just went through with the motions.

“So I don’t think this is something that would lead to a royal pardon, not for the short term at least,” Chin added.

For Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi, the process of granting a royal pardon mainly lies on the wisdom of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, whose final decision should be respected by all.

Thus, Awang Azman told Malaysiakini, no political party should be blamed for whatever decision is made by the royal institution.

“In my opinion, no one should be blamed if Najib is not granted a royal pardon, because it is under the power of the Agong.

“So, there is no issue of Zahid or Umno breaking away from the unity government because they have done all they can and whatever the king decides, it must be respected, not only by the politicians but also by the rakyat,” he said.

‘Don’t take this lightly’

Malaysiakini also spoke to several political leaders for their insight on this issue.

Umno vice-president Mohamed Khaled Nordin, when asked if he sees granting Najib a royal pardon can create a rift between Umno and Harapan, gave a similar response as Awang Azman’s, albeit agreeing that it would be a point of contention.

“The decision is with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, not any party.

“Differences in stand over the issue is something that can be expected,” he said.

Similarly, PKR’s Fahmi Fadzil, who is also the government spokesperson, said the issue is something that is manageable by the leaderships of both Harapan and BN.

“Each side has its own expectations. Yet, at the same time, this matter has to undergo its own process as per the Federal Constitution. The leadership stands guided by this.

“This is something that I believe the Harapan and BN leaders can and will manage,” Fahmi, who is also the communications and digital minister said.

However, unlike Khaled and Fahmi, Umno supreme council member Razlan Rafii cautioned the leadership of a potential blowback should the matter not be threaded carefully.

He said any such contention should not be taken lightly as “today’s politics are no longer about the principle”.

According to Razlan, the danger is also lurking with the opposition waiting to manipulate any situation to their advantage.

“Parliamentarians today no longer hold on to principles. Any issue, if it is not managed well, would surely invite political moves.

“This is not only about the issue of this royal pardon. (PN leaders) Hamzah Zainudin and Muhyiddin Yassin are also waiting to grab any opportunity.

“They are facing court cases and perhaps, jail time. So surely they would do anything and use any kind of opportunity to their advantage,” Razlan added.