Previously, I have said that a 10 and 5 formula, meaning a 10% swing in the Malay vote against the BN and a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote against the Bas compared to the results of the 13th General Election in 2013, would allow Pakatan Harapan (PH) to capture 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia thereby paving the way for a PH government in Putrajaya.
But this formula is not sufficient for PH to capture the state governments in Kelantan and Terengganu. In these two states, the small number of non-Malay votes basically means that the focus in both these two states are on the Malay voters.
A 10% Malay vote swing against the BN would only allow PH to capture 18/45 state seats in Kelantan with BN winning 19 and PAS winning 8. In Terengganu, a 10% Malay vote swing against the BN would still see BN winning 23 state seats with PH winning the remaining 9.
In order for PH to capture both of these states, there needs to be two conditions: Firstly, that the Malaysian tsunami against the BN would have to result in a 15% Malay vote swing in both Kelantan and Terengganu and Secondly, most of this Malay vote swing has to go to PH.
Is a 15% Malay vote swing against the BN possible? According to estimates by Member of Parliament for Serdang, Dr. Ong Kian Ming, there was a 27% Malay vote swing against the BN in the 1999 ‘Reformasi’ general elections. In this election, as a result of the huge Malay vote swing, PAS managed to capture the Terengganu state government from BN/UMNO and made significant inroads in Kedah.
Given that we have one of the most unpopular Prime Ministers in the history of the country, it is not impossible to think of a 15% Malay vote swing against the BN in the forthcoming 14GE.
I have see the disquiet among ordinary Malays, including many in the rural areas, because they have been impacted by bread and butter issues such as the rise in the cost of living due to the GST and the weakened Ringgit. Some in the FELDA areas are also feeling the cost of their debt, which they incurred when they were encouraged to buy shares in Felda Global Ventures (FGV). The listing price for FGV was RM4.55 in 2012. Now, FGV is trading below RM2.00 despite a recent recovery in its stock price.
A 15% Malay swing against the BN in Kelantan and Terengganu would allow PH to win 37 out of 45 state seats in Kelantan and 22 out of 32 state seats in Terengganu even in a multi-cornered fight featuring PAS. The challenge for PH is to convince fence sitters who want to see a positive change in the country to vote unequivocally for PH rather than PAS.
The PAS which we see now is not the PAS in 1999 when Tok Guru Nik Aziz was still leading PAS. He would never have agreed to such a close working relationship between UMNO and PAS. He would never had allowed PAS to be made use of by UMNO to break up the opposition alliance. He would not have allowed the various scandals to do with logging and land concessions to have happened under the watch of the Kelantan state government.
We must make the choice clear for the voters. You either vote for the BN if you want another term of kleptocratic rule under Najib Tun Razak or you vote for PH to ensure a brighter future for all Malaysians.
There is no ‘third option’ for the people of Kelantan and Terengganu and indeed for all Malaysians.