THE main battleground of the 14th general election will be in the peninsula and in some 40 multiethnic seats Umno won marginally in the last election, Kluang MP Liew Chin Tong said today.
Liew told a forum in Kuching this afternoon the Umno seats have a slight Malay majority and where Umno won by wafer thin margins as low as 8%.
PH Sarawak chairman Chong Chieng Jen and PKR Batu Lintang assemblyman See Chee How were also speakers at the forum.
Liew said if Umno were to lose all the 40 seats, even if Umno Sabah and Sarawak Barisan Nasional were to retain all their seats in the two states, it will not only spell the end of Umno but also the end of the BN government.
Liew said Umno has 73 seats in the peninsula, in which 30 were fixed deposit seats, mainly situated on the east coast.
Taking a 60-40% mixed seat as an example, Liew said PH could garner 80% of the non-Malay votes while the Malay votes would be divided four-ways among Umno, PH, “hardcore” PAS voters who are virulently anti-Umno and those who are pro-PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang who supported Umno.
Liew said PH needs only 10 to 15% of the Malay votes to win the seat.
“A swing is possible. The scenario painted by Lim Kit Siang of a 10% Malay swing for PH to win the general election is achievable.
“There will be a Malay-Malaysian tsunami. You will see a new government.”
Liew said the battle ground will be in southern Kedah, northern and southern Perak, northern Penang, northern Selangor, Pahang along the Karak highway, and northern and southern Johor.
He also said Johor and Kedah could be interesting states to watch this election due to the effect of PH chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin.
“Who would have thought the Malays would vote against Umno?
“Then again did anyone think what happened in 2008 (general election) would happen or for Dr Mahathir, Muhyiddin and (former minister of rural and regional development and now Warisan Sabah president) Shafie Apdal to leave Umno and fight BN?
“The Malays are ashamed of their Malay (prime minister) Najib (Razak), the most corrupt leader in the world. Najib had made them ashamed of being Malay,” he said.
Liew also allayed fears that PAS could play spoiler in any three-cornered contests in multi-ethnic seats.
“Most people think in any three-cornered fights, PH will lose. It will be bad for PH.”
But Liew feels it would be the opposite and it could be to PH’s advantage.
“PH will win and Najib will abandon three-corner fights because he know he will not win.”
THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT