KUALA LUMPUR – Citi Research targets the ringgit to strengthen to 4 against the US$1 and it views the local unit going a long way to maybe below 3.50.
In its research note issued on Friday, the ringgit has the third highest carry to volatility ratio in the currencies which it covers and it is right at the bottom of its historic real effective exchange rate range.
“ And the price action looks good with all major moving averages now broken to the downside, the post 2014 uptrend possibly broken and a double top in place. Ultimately, $/ringgit could go a long way, maybe to below 3.50 but for now we
target 4,” it said.
Citi Research also said after the strong Q1 GDP growth in Malaysia, which was led by domestic demand (fixed investment and consumption), its economists have raised their 2017 and 2018 GDP forecasts to 5.2% (from 4.5%) and still believe that risks are tilted to the upside.
“Our economists also point out that this strengthening growth momentum (above Bank Negara Malaysia’s assumed potential growth) will likely turn the output gap positive and leave the door open to a policy hike in late 2017 or early 2018,” it said.