KUALA LUMPUR― The ringgit and other currencies of trade-dependent emerging Asian markets could suffer if Republican candidate Donald Trump becomes the US president, according to a report by Australian newspaper The Age.
It quoted Macquarie Group’s fixed income and currencies as saying that the effects of a Trump victory on Asian currencies would demand “more scrutiny” as countries like Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia rely heavily on the US for exports, and depend a lot on global trade.
“Of those, the Singapore dollar is most at risk after a Trump win, because its central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, would be inclined to cut rates given the already ‘fragile’ state of the domestic economy,” the report said.
Macquarie also speculated that the Australian currency would “suffer” from ties to the currencies of emerging markets in Asia and would be determined by the performance of US equities, which it added would be “challenging, to say the least.”
It said that the risk of a Trump win is “significant” due to the rise and influence of what it described as “anger-politics.”
“This may be a symptom, or even a consequence, of the weak global growth and widening income gap since the global financial crisis,” Macquarie said.
It added that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and North American Free Trade Agreement would also be at risk if Trump wins the US presidency.
“Importantly, the US circle of influence in the Asia-Pacific region could shrink if the TPP deal collapses at a time when China’s influence in the region is building. How this pans out for the region over the longer term is unclear,” the report said.
Trump is running against US Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton in the election today, the result of which should be available tomorrow morning local time.