PETALING JAYA – Invoke Malaysia’s prediction that the Opposition’s former ally, PAS, will lose every single parliamentary and state seat it contests, even in its stronghold of Kelantan, has been met with disbelief.
This is because the party currently holds 13 parliamentary and 77 state seats, with seven parliamentary and 31 state seats in Kelantan.
PAS also has parliamentary seats in Terengganu (3), Perak (1), Pahang (1) and Selangor (1) and state seats in Perlis (1), Kedah (7), Terengganu (14), Penang (1), Perak (4), Pahang (2), Selangor (13), Malacca (1) and Johor (3).
Responding to an announcement by Invoke Malaysia founder Mohd Rafizi Ramli at a forum on its GE14 predictions on Saturday, PAS leaders rubbished the notion, saying they are confident of winning big in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
Mohd Rafizi had claimed that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will win 89 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, putting it ahead of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) predicted 76 parliamentary seats, should there be multi-cornered fights. However, the predictions are only for the Peninsular and did not factor in parliamentary seats in Sabah (25) and Sarawak (31).
Invoke Malaysia predicts that BN will only retain Terengganu and Pahang, but succeed in wresting Kelantan from PAS after 28 years, while Negri Sembilan and Malacca will be “hung states”, with equal representation from BN and PH in the state assemblies.
It also predicts that PH will retain Selangor and Penang, and win in Kedah, Johor and Perak.
In Penang yesterday, Mohd Rafizi defended the forecast, saying it was based on computer analysis module with data input from street polling and telephone surveys as well as feedback on social media.
“The prediction that PAS will lose badly was based on feedback from 500,000 voters over the last several months,” Rafizi said, adding that PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang does not know about the methodology of surveys and the type of modules that Invoke Malaysia used.
The computation was based on a combination of many methods and platforms before it was uploaded into a formula, that produced this analysis about PAS, he said.
“PAS still believes they have a firm Malay foothold but our survey revealed they have lost substantial support. From what we gathered, only 40% of Malay voters are certain to support Umno or PAS.”
“The rest have either become fence-sitters, or have changed their allegiance to Pakatan Harapan,” said Mohd Rafizi.
At the same time, the Islamist party has lost its standing among the non-Muslim electorate because of its insistence to pursue hudud law, he added.
Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia Information chief Datuk Kamaruddin Mohd Noor noted that Invoke’s findings also predicted the number of undecided voters.
“The numbers are quite big and we still have time to work out something,” he said, adding he believes many hardcore BN voters have also become “floating voters”.
Meanwhile, political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Jeniri Amir of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said the prediction that the Opposition will win more states in GE14 is inaccurate.
“I think it’s a bit off-tangent. How did they come to the conclusion? Maybe the Opposition will have an upper hand in states they currently control, but throughout the country, I think it is impossible,” Jeniri said.
“The Opposition also does not have the kind of election machinery and resources like BN.”
Jeniri said BN has the upper hand, especially with its election machinery, money, media and social media dominance, compared to the Opposition.
Also, the redelineation of boundaries will give Umno an advantage if it is gazetted, he added.