Pakatan Harapan can beat BN in the next general elections even without PAS, said Amanah communications director Khalid Samad.
The Shah Alam MP said this is because Amanah and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) will bring in enough votes to beat BN.
He based this on a rough simplified calculations he made, assuming that the opposition as Pakatan Rakyat had gotten 50,000 votes in 2013, while BN secured 45,000 votes.
Based on these figures, Khalid said in the next elections, Harapan would lose out 7,000 votes from PAS.
However, PAS splinter-party Amanah would help maintain 3,000 votes, and Bersatu will bring in a further 3,500 votes from Umno.
This would leave Harapan with 46,500 votes, against BN’s 41,500 votes and PAS’ 7,000 votes.
“Based on this simple estimation, then Harapan candidates can win thanks to the presence of Amanah and Bersatu,” he declared in a blog post today.
However, he said, BN would win if the PAS votes swing to the ruling coalition in the event that the Islamist party doesn’t contest or throws their support behind BN.
But he believes that if this happens, a majority of PAS voters would either boycott the polls or vote for Harapan instead.
BN had won the last general elections with 133 seats in Parliament, but only 47 percent of the popular vote.
In contrast the opposition garnered 51 percent of the popular vote 2013, but only won 88 parliamentary seats.
Critics said this was due to disproportionate voter distribution, with one urban seat equaling to two or more rural seats.
Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak has indicated that the elections will be held soon, but just how soon remains a mystery.
The opposition is trying to ensure straight fights with BN to up their chances of winning, but PAS has refused to cooperate with Amanah, as well as DAP – which it blamed for the split in the party.
PAS is also perceived to be cozying up to Umno, although leaders from the Islamist party deny that that they would work with the ruling Malay party at the polls.