After reading this Bernama story yesterday, I was convinced that there will be a real political cooperation between Umno and Pas for the coming general election,
I think it’s sort of a signal to Tok Pa and Kelantan Umno people that it’s okay for them to let Pas keep the state as it has now become a good opposition party, and friendly to BN.
The same set-up seems possible in other states too, particularly in the outright Malay majority states of Kedah, Terengganu, Pahang and Perlis.
If Umno and its BN allies prevail in the other states, Pas elected representatives may also be included in the state administration there even though the party may not be joining the ruling coalition.
In return, Pas may get the support of Umno MPs every time it proposes some “Islamic laws”.
It’s actually a good arrangement for both Umno and Pas.
Pakatan’s Malay parties of Pribumi and Amanah which were expected to contest in those states may not likely stand much of a chance against a combined Pas and Umno arrangement.Okay, maybe Pribumi and Amanah can put up a bit of a fight in Kedah but I don’t think the Dr Mahathir factor is enough for them to defeat a combined Umno and Pas in the state.Kedahans that I know told me that they will only vote either BN or Pas. They seemed allergic to other than those two parties. It’s brand loyalty, I guess.
With that, Umno can therefore concentrates its energy and resources in the other states where Pas knows that it would not be able to do much due to its lack of non-Malay support.
There are Penang, Perak, Selangor, Federal Territories, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca, Johor, Sarawak and Sabah.
BN will probably not put up too much of a fight in Penang, Selangor and Federal Territories. The anti-BN sentiment on the ground there is probably very bad, that they would not want to waste too much effort and resources.
Meanwhile, Sarawak is already in the bag.
Sabah too. Probably Shafie Apdal’s Warisan may manage a decent showing but I doubt it will be able to do more than just winning a few electoral seats.
So the only real fight will be in Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor. They are going to be the key states of GE14.
BN is likely to put more efforts there than elsewhere.
I believe Pakatan planners knew this and will do likewise.
Their chances are the best in Perak and Johor where the racial composition and level of political awareness are similar to that of Selangor.
Pakatan chances in Perak should be for now at about 50/50. and in Johor about 40/60.
Even if they can’t wrest those states, Pakatan may likely be able to get extra parliament seats there.
I think Negeri Sembilan and Malacca are at slightly lesser risks for BN compared to in Perak and Johor.
Still, BN does have the over all advantage at this stage.
Worst case scenario for BN is that it loses in Penang, Perak, Selangor, Federal Territories, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor but still wins (with the help of Pas) in Perlis, Kedah, Pahang, Terengganu, Kelantan, Sarawak and Sabah. That’s 7-7.
But a more realistic scenario is that, BN is just likely only going to lose in Penang, Selangor, Federal Territories and maybe Perak.
Despite some of my friends in Johor saying my home state will likely fall to Pakatan, I still think BN will prevail there. It may lose some more parliament and state seats but I just can’t believe that it can become another Selangor.
To a lesser extent, I feel the same about Negeri Sembilan and Malacca.
Combined with Pas MPs, I also think BN will still control parliament even though without the two third majority after GE14. It should basically be about the same as now.
Again, bear in mind that my calculations include the likelihood of Umno-Pas coalition state governments in Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Kedah and Perlis.
Okay, at the moment, that’s how I think it will be for GE14 and its outcome.