The MP of my hometown, DAP’s Liew Chin Tong was quoted by Malaysian Insight as saying this yesterday;

GE14 to be decided in Umno’s 40 marginal seats


Liew said Umno has 73 seats in the peninsula, in which 30 were fixed deposit seats, mainly situated on the east coast.
Taking a 60-40% mixed seat as an example, Liew said PH could garner 80% of the non-Malay votes while the Malay votes would be divided four-ways among Umno, PH, “hardcore” PAS voters who are virulently anti-Umno and those who are pro-PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang who supported Umno.
Liew said PH needs only 10 to 15% of the Malay votes to win the seat.
“A swing is possible. The scenario painted by Lim Kit Siang of a 10% Malay swing for PH to win the general election is achievable.
“There will be a Malay-Malaysian tsunami. You will see a new government.”
Liew said the battle ground will be in southern Kedah, northern and southern Perak, northern Penang, northern Selangor, Pahang along the Karak highway, and northern and southern Johor.

So, it’s quite clear now where the Pakatan’s main attack will be concentrated for GE14.

Image result for LIEW CHIN TONG

The key, as always, is on whether Pakatan can get enough Malays to support them.

Liew and his DAP buddies know this for certain and learning from the experience of GE13, I believe they will let the Malays in the opposition coalition to take the lead this time.

DAP tried to do that in GE13 but it was not good enough as the Chinese tsunami spooked the Malays. They also realised that their aggressive wooing of the Chinese and demands for things such as a non- Malay for the DPM post had back fired.

Back then they used Pas to break the Umno’s Malay vote bank but it didn’t work. Pas was simply not good enough to do that.

For instance, in Johor, which is definitely going to be the most important frontline state for GE14, over 83 per cent Malays voted for BN in 2013.

This time, I believe Pribumi will take over the role played by Pas in the last general election.

Despite being a young party compared to Pas, I think Pribumi can be quite dangerous in especially those targeted areas.

With Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading their charge, the risk of BN losing those marginal seats is very much greater.

Pribumi is after all mostly ex-Umno and they know how to fight their former colleagues.

PKR and Amanah may know this too and willing to take the back seats. If they don’t, then that’s too bad for them.

The question in my head now is whether BN, particularly Umno realise this impending danger and are prepared for it.

At the moment, from the little that I know, Penang and Perak Umno are doing a relatively good job. At the current rate, I believe it will be status quo there.

Kedah Umno, I was told, is doing its best but its efforts may not be good enough.

Selangor Umno is Selangor Umno. No need to comment further.

Pahang Umno is quite okay but those areas along the Karak Highway being targeted do look quite vulnerable.

Johor, which is where I’m most familiar with, is the one I think where the Pakatan’s hammer will fall the hardest. The last time I checked, Johor Umno is trying its best to be prepared  but has yet to reach the level of preparedness it achieved at the same point before the last general election. If I’m still involved as I did there in GE13, I would be worried.

Well, you can compared Liew’s analysis with this one by me;

Meanwhile there’s this story by Malaysian Insight too yesterday ;

Pakatan had better not pin hopes on Malay tsunami, says pollster 

Interesting, isn’t it?

Okay, those are quite serious stuff.

To lighten up things, let’s listen to some music;