BARISAN Nasional is expected to win the most seats in Selangor in the 14th general election following the Election Commission’s redelineation exercise, said state government think tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).
IDE chief executive Professor Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said based on 2013 voting trends, BN was expected to win 20 seats, while PAS would win nine, DAP (15) and PKR (12).
While BN’s 20 seats may not be enough for it to form the state government on its own, PAS’ breakaway from the main opposition bloc and warmer ties with Umno could help BN retake Selangor.
“The redelineation by the EC in Selangor is favourable to BN,” said Redzuan, who used to head Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections, in Shah Alam today.
Pakatan Harapan currently has 29 lawmakers in the Selangor legislative assembly, while PAS has 13 and BN, 12, with two independent representatives.
PH’s total comprises 14 from DAP, 13 from PKR and two from Amanah.
BN lost the state to the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat opposition pact in GE12, when it won only 20 of the 56 state seats.
In 2013, BN suffered a second blow when it lost another eight seats and conceded its two-thirds majority to Pakatan Rakyat in the state assembly.
Redzuan said 46 seats in Selangor would be redrawn if the redelineation was bulldozed through Parliament.
As a result, the think tank predicts that eight seats, including Hulu Klang, which is currently held by Amanah, and PAS seat Paya Jaras, are likely to fall to BN.
Another four seats, such as Sementa, currently held by PKR, may see the incumbent party winning with less than a 1,000-vote majority.
A further 27 seats, such as Jeram (BN) and Seri Andalas (PKR), will likely see the incumbent parties retaining them with a majority of between 1,000 and 5,000 votes.
Redzuan said 17 opposition strongholds, such as Bukit Lanjan (PKR) and Kinrara (DAP), would see their majorities increase to more than 10,000 votes.
The remaining 10 seats, which have been left untouched by the EC, are all rural seats.
Five are being held by BN (Sungai Air Tawar, Sungai Panjang, Hulu Bernam, Batang Kali and Dengkil), three by DAP (Sekinchan, Kuala Kubu Bharu and Sungai Pelek) and two by PAS (Sabak and Tanjong Sepat).
Redzuan said incumbent opposition politicians must adjust their strategies to offset the advantage gained by BN through the redelineation exercise.
“Seri Andalas assemblyman Dr Xavier (Jayakumar) will have to head down to the Malay areas and visit surau more often.”
The redelineation exercise will see a change in Seri Andalas’ voter composition, from 41% Malay, 25% Chinese and 33% Indian to 74% Malay, 12% Chinese and 14% Indian.
The EC held a public inquiry into its redelineation exercise last week, despite complaints that many objectors were away due to the holiday season.
PH believes that once the EC has wrapped up the public inquiry, BN will hold a special parliamentary session to bulldoze the redelineation proposal through Parliament before GE14, which is due to be called by August.