Pakatan Harapan and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) forming the next government is one of several potential outcomes, according to a preliminary survey by PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli’s Invoke Centre for Policy Initiatives (I-CPI).
In this scenario, an I-CPI simulation found that Harapan and Bersatu would win 126 parliamentary seats, BN 96, while PAS would win zero seats.
However, this outcome is dependent on several factors, namely, that half of those who did not vote in the previous election cast their ballots in favour of Harapan; Chinese voter support for the opposition coalition is at GE13 levels; and that they can win over 38 percent of PAS supporters.
If Chinese support is at GE13 levels, but non-voting percentages and PAS support remain the same, then BN would win the election with 130 seats, Harapan and Bersatu 92 seats, and PAS zero.
Other simulations run by I-CPI also resulted in a BN victory. But PAS would still be wiped out with no seats.
A possible outcome not mentioned in the survey is that Harapan, too, could face a wipeout.
Of the 104,340 respondents, 41 percent would vote for BN, Harapan and Bersatu 24 percent, and PAS 21 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents said they would not vote.
Even though the combined support for Harapan, Bersatu and PAS at 43 percent is bigger than BN’s 40 percent, the split in votes means that BN would still have the majority.
The survey simulations also did not take into account the effect of the Election Commission’s re-delineation exercise.
Despite this, the survey respondents did indicate that Malay support for BN would be at its lowest in years, at just 40 percent.
A racial breakdown of the respondents was not made available to Malaysiakini, although Invoke strategic director Shaun Kua said this is available in the full survey results which Invoke would put up for sale soon.
He assured the breakdown is reflective of the electoral role demographics provided by the EC and other sources, that 59 percent of voters are Malay, Chinese 25 percent, Indians seven percent, and Sabah and Sarawak Bumiputera eight percent.
Kua also noted that survey findings among Chinese and Indians might be skewed due to concerns that the survey was actually being run by BN.
Rafizi, however, said there was a silver lining to the skewed results.
“Even though non-Malays may not be entirely truthful in the survey because they think it is by BN, even then it shows that Harapan has a chance at winning,” the Pandan MP told Malaysiakini.
Rafizi also said that the survey findings rubbished predictions by analysts who were not on the ground, that BN would likely win the next election.
Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak has said that polls would be held soon, but has yet to reveal a date.