One year after Mahathir resigned from Umno on 29th February 2016 and took over the leadership of Pakatan Harapan was the worst one year for the opposition. Reflecting on this disaster brought Kit Siang to tears today. He knows that not only has their association with Mahathir destroyed DAP and Pakatan but his son, Guan Eng, is still going to jail and that Mahathir is not able to save him after all.
It was one year ago today on 29th February 2016 that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad left Umno after his son, Mukhriz, was forced to resign as the Menteri Besar of Kedah on 3rd February 2016. And it was HRH the Sultan of Kedah who wanted Mukhriz’s resignation and the message telling him to go was delivered by the Kedah Royal Council — so there was no way Mukhriz could defy this titah or royal command.
Well, actually Mahathir resigned on the 29th of February 2016 but then in this year February has only 28 days so that would make the 1st of March 2017 the First Anniversary of Mahathir’s resignation from Umno — until the next leap year in 2020, that is.
Mahathir resigned from Umno one year ago today on 29th February 2016 and jinxed the opposition
Today, 1st March 2017, Lim Kit Siang burst into tears as he told a very close friend and confidante that the last one year has been an epic disaster for him personally as well as for DAP. In the previous general election, DAP won 38 parliament seats, up ten seats from the 2008 general election, and a vast improvement over the 2004 general election when DAP won only 12 parliament seats.
In the next general election due in 2018, DAP was hoping to win around 50-56 seats, which is the maximum number of Chinese-majority seats — and up to 1st March 2016 this appeared very possible. One year on, 1st March 2017, this now appears unlikely and DAP is going to be hard-pressed to retain its 38 seats let alone increase these seats to 50 or more.
Anyway, winning just 50-56 ‘Chinese’ seats is not enough if DAP wants to form the next federal government. DAP, through its opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan, also needs to win a sizeable portion of the 57 parliament seats in East Malaysia and the 100 or so ‘Malay’ seats in West Malaysia. But DAP cannot win these seats all by itself. It needs its partners in the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan, Mahathir’s Pribumi or PPBM included, to contribute to the 125 or so opposition seats needed to march into Putrajaya.
Mahathir was supposed to save Guan Eng from jail time but Kit Siang now knows that is not possible
Kit Siang now knows that this is no longer possible. The last one year from 1st March 2016 until today, 1st March 2017, has been a disaster — and added to this is the fact that his son, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, is without a doubt going to jail. Mahathir is not able to keep Guan Eng out of jail like how Kit Siang had hoped: which was why Kit Siang embraced Mahathir in the first place.
Guan Eng was once jailed for failing to pay a fine but DAP has been spinning the entire thing as if he was jailed for defending a Malay girl. The truth is Guan Eng was jailed for not paying a fine and not because he defended a Malay girl. So DAP has been bluffing you all these years. And the crime Guan Eng was fined for was for printing false news — in short, for lying. And the judge who sent Guan Eng to jail is now Anwar Ibrahim’s lawyer, a man known to be aligned to Mahathir.
Yes, it was Anwar’s lawyer (who is also Mahathir’s lawyer) who sent Guan Eng to jail and he was jailed for not paying a fine and not for allegedly defending a Malay girl, as they keep repeating. And this judge, now turned Anwar lawyer, has never apologised for sending Guan Eng to jail and instead said Guan Eng needs to be taught a lesson — meaning he deserves to be sent to jail.
That was the spin they fabricated as to why Guan Eng went to jail — for defending a Malay girl. Now they cannot spin such stories anymore. This time Guan Eng is going to jail for corruption so they cannot capitalise on the issue and exploit it the way they did the last time by saying Guan Eng went to jail because he defended a Malay girl.
Mukhriz resigned as the Kedah Menteri Besar by royal decree on 3rd February 2016 and Mahathir followed suit on 29th February 2016 and took over as the new opposition leader
And that was why Kit Siang broke down and cried today. Not only has the last one year since 1st March 2016 been a disaster for DAP and the DAP-led opposition coalition, the Lim Dynasty is also going to end once Guan Eng goes to jail and a new Chief Minister takes over Penang. On top of that, DAP is not going to win the 50-56 parliament seats it had hoped to win while Pakatan Harapan is not going to win the 125 seats to be able to form the new Federal Government like it had planned.
DAP now has to lower its sights. 50-56 parliament seats may be too much to aim for. Maybe 35-40 seats would be more realistic. That means the opposition must win at least 25-30 seats in East Malaysia and an additional 40-45 seats in West Malaysia (further to those that DAP wins). So that also means PKR, PAN and Pribumi have to deliver another 75-80 seats. If PKR can deliver around 30 seats, PAN and Pribumi must deliver the balance 45-50 seats. And that would be impossible to achieve. Even just 10 seats for PAN and Pribumi will be an achievement.
The only way Anwar Ibrahim can get out of jail and Guan Eng can be prevented from going to jail (if he is not already in jail by the next general election) would be to grab federal power. It is also important to Mahathir that Umno and Barisan Nasional are ousted if he wants his son to become Prime Minister and if he wants to be able to get back the RM100 billion still stuck under his proxies, trustees, nominees and cronies.
Short of taking over federal power, both Kit Siang’s and Mahathir’s plans are dashed. Anwar, too, will remain in prison and will never, ever see political office again. That would be the end of the road for Mahathir, Kit Siang and Anwar and the end of their political dynasties as well. Of course, this would also mean that Najib Tun Razak will still remain Prime Minister and the Umno-led Barisan Nasional will still be in power until at least 2022 or so.
King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia met Najib this week
Many, unless you are Malay, do not see the significance of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia’s visit to Malaysia. Malays, on the other hand, see this as a fantastic endorsement of Najib’s leadership and puts to rest the opposition story that Najib stole RM2.6 billion of 1MDB’s money. Most Malays know that the Saudi Royal Family is super-rich and RM2.6 billion is nothing to them. Malays also know that the Saudi Royal Family has donated hundreds of billions to causes, countries and leaders all over the world. The US has estimated the amount as US$150 billion. So what is a mere RM2.6 billion for Najib?
If Mahathir and the DAP-led opposition were hoping to use the RM2.6 billion spin to destroy Najib, and in the same process the Umno-led Barisan Nasional, that is now no longer possible. The Saudi Royal Family is a close friend of Najib and the Saudi Royal Family is known to be very generous to their close friends. And if they can donate US$150 billion to their friends what is a mere RM2.6 billion for Najib?
Yes, that is all the Malays in the 100 or so parliament seats need to know. They need to know that the next general election is a contest between the Umno-led Barisan Nasional and the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan. In short, it is a choice between a Malay-led government and a Chinese-led government. And even those Malays who are PAS supporters would choose a Malay government as opposed to a Chinese government that is against the Sharia Amendment Bill a.k.a. RUU355.
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia met Najib in 2009
Say what you like, Najib played a brilliant political game this last one year from 1st March 2016 until 1st March 2017. The day Mahathir resigned from Umno on 29th February 2016 and took over as the de factoopposition leader on 1st March 2016 was the beginning of the end for the opposition. And that was why Kit Siang broke down and cried today. He knew that Najib had out-played them and that the next general election is going to see Umno and Barisan Nasional recover ground they lost in 2008 and 2013.
Of course, the Chinese are still going to vote for DAP never mind what Najib does for the Chinese community. Last year the government gave the Chinese schools more than RM500 million and still they say the government is discriminating against Chinese education and Chinese schools. If the government increases the amount to RM1 billion this year they will still complain and say the government did nothing for the Chinese schools and Chinese education.
So the Chinese do not matter. What matters are the Malays and the East Malaysians. They are the ones who are going to keep Najib, Umno and Barisan Nasional in power. And, to the PAS supporters, Najib, Umno and Barisan Nasional are not the ones who are opposed to the Sharia Amendment Bill or RUU355 while DAP and the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan are. Or have you not noticed?
Do you still not believe that Najib’s Boffin Boys are brilliant?
Raja Petra Kamarudin