UMNO CAWANGAN DAN AKAR UMBI SUDAH MATI. PAS SUDAH JADI BANGKAI BUSUK.
Just yesterday I blogged about Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman warning UMNO members that if they are too ashamed to defend UMNO, then the BN will lose the next general elections. UMNO Sabah is in dire straits. Sabahans are fed up of UMNO.
Then last nite I received a phone call from an old friend, a Tan Sri and an ex Cabinet Minister, who is very much in touch with Ketua Bahagian UMNO and other UMNO leaders. He says their feedback is that all UMNO activities at the bahagian (division) and cawangan (branch) levels are almost dead. Only those divisions headed by Cabinet Ministers and party big guns have some activity but not like before.
Other divisions and cawangans at the state levels are dead. UMNO members are just not turning up for activities and meetings. In places like Sabah it is indeed very bad. UMNO is dead already.
Coincidentally I just received a copy of Rafizi Ramli’s latest monthly poll about the peoples’ support or lack thereof for the various political parties. The figures confirm the feedback from the grassroots that UMNO has lost the support of its own members.
Here is the survey by Rafizi’s INVOKE:
INVOKE GE14 CROWDFUNDING
- BN ONLY HAS 41% MALAY SUPPORT
- 51% PAS SUPPORTERS INCLINED TO SUPPORT PH
Dear friendsINVOKE carries out monthly tracking polls so that we can profile voters better.
insight (sic) knowledge of voter sentiment key to profiling 14m voters nationwide.
every month, INVOKE calls 5,000 people nationwide to gauge voter sentiment.
The 5,000 are selected randomly by a computer to represent stratified voters group
the outcome of poll is representative of 14 million voters nationwide.
we can predict reliably how voter likely to vote and run simulation of likely outcome.
December’s tracking poll show PH wins 115 Parliamentary seats
(My comments : This does NOT include Sabah, since Parti Warisan is not part of PH.)
the following nationwide voter sentiment:
1) only 41% Malay voters nationwide chose Umno in likely 3 corner fight
2) 50% Malay UMNO voters agree GST should be abolished. This means 41% Malay voters for Umno can go down further
3) PAS’ support among Malays suffered drastic decline over last 12 months.
Only 14% Malay voters chose PAS in Dec 2017
compared to 25% in January 2017 poll
4) PAS’ support among Malays to erode further in coming months.
51% Malays will vote for PH
5) Chinese back to pre-2013 level.
Chinese support for PH passed 80% in Dec 2017
6) Indians mirror pre-2013 level at 60% for BN and 40% for PH
Support among Malays for Umno worse in key battleground states.
INVOKE polls 1,500 voters in marginal parliamentary in Kedah, Johor, Negeri Sembilan, Perak, Pulau Pinang, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur.
The result was horrifying for Umno.
only 31% Malays in Kulim Bandar Baru and Merbok (most hotly contested swing seats in Kedah) will vote for Umno in 3-corner fight.only 30% Malay voters in JB will vote Umno in 3-corner fight.
NUS’ (ISEAS) finds only 35% Malays in Johor to vote for BN in GE14.
evidence that BN is facing certain demise in GE14.
As we move nearer to election, positive vibe for change will drown naysayers.
Umno plan to cheat at marginal seats Merbok, Kulim Bandar Baru, JB
My comments : Both UMNO and PAS are dead.
Kepala Bapok has made a huge mistake by doing the sumbang mahram with Hadi Awang.
And Hadi Awang has killed off PAS by agreeing to sumbang mahram with Kepala Bapok.
This time around, the more three corner fights there are, the more the BN and PAS are going to lose. This is what I have been telling everyone I met. The ground has shifted. In fact three corner, four corner, five corner fights will benefit Pakatan Harapan even better. It is the BN (and PAS) who will lose more from three corner fights.
Even if Parti Warisan swings FIVE Parliamentary seats in Sabah, the score will be PH + Warisan = 120 Parliamentary seats.
The BN is dead. UMNO is dead.