In the “Mood of the Nation Ahead of GE14” survey from August 11 to 15, the Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE), it was found that an united Opposition comprising Pakatan Harapan and PAS can control seven states and the federal territory in peninsular Malaysia and gain 59% of the national popular vote.
The seven states are Penang, Selangor, Kelantan, Kedah, Perak, Pahang and Malacca.
Furthermore, Barisan Nasional will lose its two-thirds majority in the almost all remaining states.
IDE chief executive director Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman who presented the results of the survey which involved 4,486 respondents said the respondents were asked which party they would vote for if GE14 was held six months from now.
“If you obtain 52% of the popular vote (which Pakatan Rakyat did in the 13GE) you are still not secure, like what happened in Perak.
“But in the Malaysian context, if you get more than 58% you are secure. It is beyond reach and this is what happened in Selangor in the last general election when Pakatan obtained 58%.”
The survey, which covers 130 parliamentary seats in the peninsula, also found that 50% of respondents have already decided which political party to vote for, 22% after nomination, 9% a week before elections and another 19% on election day.
I accept the findings of the IDE survey, except that it was working on a wrong premise.
THE HADI FACTOR
PAS under its present President, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and his five lieutenants is a very different PAS from the PAS under former PAS Mursyidul Am Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat and former PAS Presidents Fadzil Noor and Yusuf Rawa.
PAS has gone into a transmutation from the Amanat Hadi of 1981 which was delivered to destroy UMNO to the Hadi and the tembikai PAS leadership of today which has become the greatest apologist and defender of Najib as the global kleptocrat of the 1MDB scandal and “MO1”.
Hadi and his five “tembikai” (coined by PPBM strategist Rais Hussein) lieutenants in the leadership only want PAS candidates in the 14GE to be “suicide bombers” to ensure victory of UMNO candidates in 14GE to protect Najib as Prime Minister and not to be elected as Members of Parliament or State Assembmen.
The proclamation of Hadi and his five tembikai leadership that PAS wants to win 40 parliamentary seats and five state government is only “pie in the sky”.
The results of the general elections since 1959 show that PAS achieved its best results in the 1999, 2008 and 2013 general elections when it was a member of the Barisan Alternative or Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition, as illustrated by the following chart:
I do not think PAS’ Hadi and his tembikai leadership will dare to unveil the identity of the 40 parliamentary seats and the five state governments they are certain of winning, for it will show that in all these parliamentary and state assembly seats, PAS candidates will be mere “suicide bombers” to help UMNO candidates to win.
The political situation would be different if the PAS leadership under Hadi had not caused the disintegration of Pakatan Rakyat and taken PAS in a new political direction to aid and abet Najib in facing the international infamy and ignominy of a global kleptocracy and “MO1” in the multi-billion dollar 1MDB money-laundering scandal.
Looking back, it is now clear that Hadi’s political inclinations and tendencies did not start after the 13GE.
Hadi had never publicly supported Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the Pakatan Rakyat Prime Minister-designate in the 13GE campaign. When the issue was forced in 2014, Hadi declared his opposition to the PKR President, Datuk Seri Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as the PR Selangor Mentri Besar.
A few months before the 13th General Elections in May 2015, Hadi came to DAP headquarters in Kuala Lumpur to persuade the DAP to support Tengku Razaleigh instead of Anwar as the Prime Minister of Pakatan Rakyat should PR win the 13th General Election.
When the DAP leadership rejected his proposal, and stressed the need for maintaining credibility and integrity in supporting Anwar as the Prime Minister-designate, the seeds of the present behavior of Hadi and tembikai leadership may have been planted.