I did not say much earlier about the Saudi king’s visit. They are ‘not relevant’ – a very sad two words that are becoming increasingly relevant. The Saudi’s are becoming even less relevant.
The Saudis are in a very tight spot. That war in Yemen is not going anywhere. Oil prices are crashing again. The OPEC production cuts sort of held for three months – but thats about it.
Worse, personally President Donald Trump is not Saudi Arabia’s closest buddy. Trump spoke on the telephone to the Saudis just once and that was it. The Saudis will have to pay more for the protection of the US military – without which Saudi Arabia will not exist.
The Saudis are trying to look for ‘suckers’ to buy shares in the listing of Aramco – the Saudi national oil corporation. The Saudis value Aramco at US$2 TRILLION ! ! Analysts say this figure is seriously bloated. Lower figures of US$400 – 500 billion are also mentioned. (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trillions-or-Billions-What-Is-Aramcos-IPO-Actually-Worth.html)
That is why the Saudis came here – looking for potential ‘suckers’ who have great experience in things like FGV, 1MDB etc. The ‘kabilah DNA bahalol’.
Yo brader DNA bahalol, just note that each year Aramco must pay compulsory “dividends” amounting to 20% of their REVENUES to the Saudi government. That is 20% of REVENUES ok.
And whatever is left over as profits is then taxed at 85% by the Saudi government.
Those MOUs signed for US7 billion or whatever is just words on paper. Lets see if anything really materialises.
And gather this folks, the Saudi King is also swinging by China. China is Saudi Arabia’s single largest oil buyer. Now Russia is slowly but surely replacing Saudi Arabia as No. 1 supplier to China. So the Saudi King has gone to China to kiss the Chinese butt as well.
Oil prices are crashing again. OPEC cuts, winter is over, inventories rising bla bla. Diam-lah. Bising.
Its only two more words : shale oil. Please go here and read any of the brief and power packed articles that has “shale” in it, to your hearts content.
West Texas Crude went below US50 again. Its at US48+. Now they are already talking about US40-42 per barrel.
Even at US45 we are talking about nasi kicap, using 10% broken rice at RM2.90 per kilo. Forget about Maggie Mee.
Shale oil is still on a steep learning curve. Meaning newer, more efficient and cost saving technologies in the extraction of shale oil are still evolving. Breakeven costs are reducing by the months and weeks.
This time around at US50 per barrel, shale oil producers started ramping up production. There will be spikes and dips in the future but each time the spikes will get lower. The dips will also go lower.
So why are the prices of petrol and diesel going up in Malaysia?
They dont want you all to be too clever.
They dont want you all to know what is going on in the real world.
They prefer you all to be dumb and dont know anything.