ANALISA BARISAN NASIONAL BAKAL KALAH TERUK PRU14

Here is some news from FMT today.
political analyst sees Umno Johor shakier than ever
attributes this to emergence of PPBM
PPBM founders : Johorean Muhyiddin Yassin
similar situation three decades ago
Kelantan’s Ku Li opposed to Mahathir
cooperation with PAS
Umno lost Kelantan to PAS

Umno face same fate in Johor
Muhyiddin now PPBM president
Johoreans feel indebted to him
Johoreans slighted by unjust way he has been treated
Johoreans to show displeasure at polling booths
My comments :  Johor is in the same situation as Kedah after Badawi insulted Tun Dr Mahathir. Hence the BN lost Kedah in 2008.

The same thing is going to happen to Johor, Sabah and Kedah again. MOI practically kicked out Muhyiddin, Shafie Apdal and Mukhriz Mahathir.  Now the BN will pay the price in Johor, Sabah and Kedah. Just wait and see.

The Malaysian Insight has begun a series on the marginal constituencies won by UMNO/BN in the last elections. There are about 38 Parliamentary constituencies that are considered marginal wins for the UMNO/BN.  Here is Malaysian Insight’s analysis of Pasir Gudang :
UNDI Melayu bakal menentukan kerusi Parlimen Pasir Gudang PRU14
majoriti (BN) menjunam teruk dalam PRU 2013.
Majoriti BN jatuh 94% dpd 17,281 undi PRU 2008 kepada 935 undi PRU 2013
Pasir Gudang kawasan Parlimen campuran.
PRU13 101,041 pengundi berdaftar, 47% Melayu, Cina 38%, India 11%.
My comments : I think this time around, there is going to be a Tsunami of all voters – Malay, Chinese and Indian votes – against the BN.
In the PRU13 in 2013, the Indians voted for the BN – largely due to the fact that Waythamoorthy’s Hindraf was campaigning for the BN.

This time around the Hindraf has launched the “Zero Votes For BN”  campaign which is gaining traction not only among Indians but among other voters as well.

In Pasir Gudang for example, the number of Indian voters (about 11,000 of them) is about TWELVE TIMES (12 TIMES) UMNO’s slim winning margin of 935 votes.

If only 470 Indians vote against the BN in Pasir Gudang, that seat will be lost.

This time around I think all the 11,000 Indians will vote against the BN.

  • By the way, this time around UMNO/BN can forget about  RM50 plus one tin of Milo or one bag of rice to buy the Indian votes.
  • This time around the Indians are waiting eagerly for free washing machines, free LCD TVs, free motorbikes etc from UMNO/BN.
  • And here is the catch – the Indians are being told to take all these “donations from Saudi Arabia to be used to fight ISIS” and then DO NOT VOTE FOR THE BN.
  • IT WILL STILL BE ZERO VOTES FOR THE BN.
UMNO/BN is really screwed.
Here is something else I received yesterday. This is some really clever spin by the Pakatan psy-war boys. It has gone viral. It may not be entirely untrue.

Berita terbaru ….

UMNO TERDESAKPANAS PANAS PANAS
Shah Alam, Selangor
30 Dis 2017.

Di khabarkan menteri Wilayah Persekutuan membuat perjumpaan sulit empat mata dengan Tun Dr M. Perjumpaan ini bagi membincangkan keadaan politik semasa di masa sama Ku Nan merayu kepada Pengerusi Parti Peribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) untuk kembali ke dalam perjuangan UMNO dan seterusnya Ku Nan mohon kepada YABhg. Tun M bagi membubarkan PPBM.

Walaubagaimana pun usaha mendapatkan pengesahan dari kedua-dua individu tersebut gagal kerana masing-masing dilihat keluar dari tempat perjumpaan di salah sebuah hotel terkemuka di bandaraya ini. Namun dari sumber yang boleh di percayai dari parti PPBM mengesahkan perjumpaan itu adalah atas permintaan UMNO yg diwakilkan oleh Najib Tun Razak dengan tujuan untuk “membeli” Integriti bekas PM selama 22 tahun itu.

Keadaan ini memperlihatkan bahawa kerajaan umno ketika ini sangat terdesak dan tenat serta akan menghadapi kekalahan teruk pada PRU 14 di jangka kurang dari 100 hari. Aktivis Parti.

PPBM
BANTURA

SUMBER:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=779684365560472&id=607080042820906&ref=bookmark

My comments :  I checked with folks in Tun Dr. M’s office who dismissed this report. It is a clever spin.   But it is really foolhardy of UMNO/BN to still venture into the General Elections with this thieving super moron sitting at the top. None of the Cabinet Ministers are with the stupid jack ass. I have more news which I do not wish to share but the BN is breaking up. (Do read on).  Except for the MCA, the BN components are really worried about their future. The MCA is none too worried because MOST of MCA’s ordinary members vote for the DAP anyway. MCA is for business and projects,  but their vote is for the  DAP.

So it will not be surprising if UMNO does ponder sending an emissary to meet with Tun Dr M to discuss “terms”.  I do know that they have been meeting with other people.

Finally here is a ‘forecast of the PRU 14’ by I dont know who that has gone viral since yesterday.  It is worth a look.

PRU14 – Negeri yang diramalkan jatuh / kekal kepada WARISAN / PAKATAN HARAPAN – walaupun perlawanan 3-5 penjuru.  Oleh penganalisis Politik tanah air

1.Kedah
2.Pulau Pinang
3.Perak
4.Selangor
5.Negeri Sembilan
6.Johor
7.Sabah (Warisan)
8.Wilayah Persekutuan

Negeri yang masih berada di bawah UMNO/BN;
1.Sarawak
2.Terengganu
3.Pahang

Negeri yang berada lawan 50-50;
1.Perlis
2.Kelantan
3.Melaka

Faktor Utama
A) Tekanan kos sara hidup/GST
B) Peralihan sokongan penduduk Felda ekoran pencurian duit Felda/FGV
C) Kebangkitan sokongan / Aura Tun Mahathir
D) reaksi Kedah ekoran pemecatan Muhkriz sebagai MB
E) reaksi Johor ekoran pemecatan Muhyiddin Yassin dari UMNO
F) reaksi Sabah ekoran pemecatan Shafie Apdal dari UMNO
G) Gerak kerja bawahan menaikan isu rakyat
H) Pengundi baru
I) Tidak keluar mengundi
J) Kesedaran Saluran 2
K) Tsunami Melayu
L) Tsunami Cina
M) Tsunami India
N) Kebangkitan semula HINDRAF
O) Rasuah / penyelewengan
P) Isu potongan bantuan
Q) Isu kelemahan JKKK
R) Susutan nilai Ringgit (Protes dari peniaga/pedagang/Pemborong)
S) Ekonomi Sabah Timur rugi besar ekoran operasi ESSCOM
T) Kadar pengangguran meningkat di kalangan bumiputera
U) Penutupan banyak kilang, hypermarket dan premis perniagaan
V) Hasil kelapa sawit bumiputera jatuh merudum tanpa sabsidi baja
W) Hasil padi bumiputera Kedah, Perlis, Sekinchan, Perak jatuh tanpa sabsidi baja
X) penjualan tanah Kerajaan dan aset negara kepada Negeri Cina
Y) kehadiran berpuluhan ribu pekerja ‘penjajah baru’ dari Negeri Cina
Z) penampilan daif dan kurang cerdik presiden dan pimpinan UMNO/BN
Ahli PAS

– Kebanyakan tidak keluar parti  tetapi mengambil tindakan tidak akan keluar mengundi atau mengundi PAKATAN HARAPAN dengan senyap untuk mengelakkan dipulau, dicaci dan sebagainyaAhli UMNO

– Mengundi Protes secara senyap, berkemungkinan takut untuk mendedahkan sokongan kepada PAKATAN HARAPAN.

Pengundi Atas Pagar
– Bangkit dengan kesedaran kelembapan ekonomi dan anak muda tidak ada peluang pekerjaan.Wanita

–  Peratus mengikut menyokong parti sokongan suami sebanyak 75%

Peratus jangkaan kemenangan kerusi PAS mengikut negeri (PRU14)

1.Kedah (Tiada Kerusi)
2.Perlis (Tiada Kerus)
3.Pulau Pinang (Tiada Kerusi)
4.Perak (Tiada Kerusi)
5.Selangor (Tiada Kerusi)
6.N.Sembilan (Tiada Kerusi)
7.Melaka (Tiada Kerusi)
8.Johor ( Tiada kerusi )
9.Wilayah Persekutuan (Tiada kerusi )
10.Pahang (Tiada kerusi )
11.Sarawak (Tiada Kerusi )
12.Sabah (Tiada Kerusi)
13.Kelantan (berkemungkinan 12 kerusi termasuk Parlimen)
14.Terengganu (20 kerusi kebawah)

Penilaian  kemenangan Kerusi PAKATAN HARAPAN mengikut Parti
-Belum mendapat maklumat jelas pembahagian kerusi
______________
nota kaki:

1) spt praya2 yg lepas, SPR memainkan peranan utama dalam memberi kelebihan undi kpd BN. Pada PRU14 ini, SPR telah menyulitkan urusan semakan rang pengundi dengan tidak lagi memberi salinan kepada pembangkang, sebaliknya pembangkang terpaksa membuat salinan sendiri di pjbt2 spr negeri.

2) Pengundi pos dan pengundi awal yang sentiasa di ragui telah di tambah, bukan sahaja kepada polis dan tentera, tetapi juga kepada badan2 beruniform yang lain spt kesihatan/bomba/rela/petugas SPR dll. Malahan ada di sebahagian tempat, walaupun kem2 sedang di bina, pengundi pos bg tentera telah di bawa masuk._

3) Justeru, rakyat dan orang ramai di galak utk terlibat sebagai Ejen pemerhati & pengira undi (PACA) di tempat masing2 melalui parti2 politik atau NGO spt INVOKE bagi memastikan pilihanraya kali ini adalah telus dan adil._

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My comments :  The situation is like this.  Lets say the DAP, PPBM, PKR, Amanah, Warisan or even PAS lose the elections. No big deal. They will be back to where they are now. Status quo. All their party members and all their leadership will still gather and rally around each other and they will prepare for the next general elections. Their struggle will go on.

BUT THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID ABOUT THE BARISAN NASIONAL. Those retards are really screwed this time.  Because their Chief is a Thief, who has been identified by none other than the FBI and the US Dept of Justice as the head of the largest kleptocracy the world has ever known. That arrest warrant from the USA will arrive. They may be slow, but it is a go. Their Chief is toxic waste.

The only thing keeping the vultures together in the BN is the promise of a free meal. The bastards are also beggars.

But the moment the BN loses the elections or even if there is a hung Parliament, we will see the BN vultures abandoning the Chief Thief at a speed faster than the sound of their farts.

They will totally abandon the Chief Thief.
Who wants to rally around a Thief?
With his thieving wife as well?

So lets look at Perak as an example.

My good friend Zambry Abdul Kader is the Menteri Besar of Perak.
Zambry is no great fan of the Super Moron.
But Zambry has only a two seat majority in Perak.
Lets say Zambry loses Perak.
Do you think Zambry  will  still hang around with the Moron?

I dont think so. I think Zambry and his henchmen will negotiate with Tun Dr Mahathir for an entry into PPBM. They will bring whatever seats they have won into PPBM. PPBM will become stronger.If the BN loses Parliament,  I think ALL the UMNO boys who have won seats in Parliament or the State DUNs will negotiate an entry into PPBM.  PPBM will become stronger.

The surviving UMNO boys will abandon the BN.

The UMNO boys will not give a hoot about the MCA, MIC, PPP,  PBS, SUPP, PBB, ABC, XYZ etc.  They will save their own backsides first.

This is the end of the BN. This is the end of UMNO as well.

– http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.fr

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